Dissecting Pats vs Broncos

While seemingly the only narrative attached to this game has been "Brady Manning XVII", the real one is Wade Phillips' defense vs Tom Brady.

 Pats offense vs Broncos defense

This is where the meat of the game will happen. The Broncos offense is a snooze-fest, which includes two runs for a few yards, then one Manning screen pass to complete the 3 and out. The Patriots defense is tough as nails, but are pretty unspectacular to watch.

As for each team's other side of the ball, look out. The Broncos may be the only team in the league with enough quality secondary players to square up against the Brady-Gronk-Edelman-Amendola four headed monster. The reason the Pats have been so effective on offense albeit having a nonexistent running game is because they just spread out 5 receivers and exploit the other team's worst coverage man. Really, how great is a team's fifth best secondary player?

For the Broncos, pretty incredible. On defense, the Broncos have three fantastic cornerbacks in Aqib Talib, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby. Not to mention their safeties, T.J. Ward, Darian Stewart and David Bruton are also competent. With the Pats spreading five out, the Broncos will have to play all six of these players, using Stewart as an overseer of the defense while the other secondary men square up.

The Broncos would then be able to let Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware rush Brady at will, along with their three other defensive ends. For the Broncos secondary to match up against the Pats receivers, they must strategically choose who guards who. With Gronkowski, by far the Pats most dangerous offensive weapon, the Broncos need to put forth a ton of their resources on him. That means jamming him at the line of scrimmage with Ward, who is a lot stronger than he looks. A split second later, have Talib and his huge build double Gronk. With two players glued to Gronk, that should neutralize him as much as humanly possible.

As for Julian Edelman, the clone of Wes Welker ten years ago, the Broncos should attach Harris Jr, the Broncos best cover man, on him. Edelman makes his earnings by slashing to the middle of the field on quick slants. This is where the Broncos have linebacker Brandon Marshall, an incredibly agile yet strong linebacker waiting in the middle for Edelman. This will allow Harris Jr. to ease off Edelman, therefore being more prepared if Edelman were to reverse course.

Danny Amendola, a player the Patriots use similarly to Edelman, will need to be covered by second year corner Bradley Roby. Roby has great instincts, and is always in the right place at the right time, somewhere Amendola always tries to be. Should make for an intriguing matchup.

The reason the Pats are so great is that even if a team plays brilliantly enough and manages to slow down all of Gronkowski, Edelman and Amendola, Tom Brady still makes them pay by hitting his less talented receivers, Brandon LaFell and Keshawn Martin, perfectly. The Broncos must put Bruton Jr. on LaFell. Bruton Jr. is 217 lbs and LaFell 212, giving Bruton the slight edge physically.

With Martin, who the Pats smartly acquired for a 5th round pick midseason, Stewart must lock him down. This may be the most important facet of the game, since Martin is the Pats' weakest receiver and Stewart the Broncos' worst cover man. Martin will always be the fifth option in the Patriots offense, but that doesn't mean he can't hurt you. Stewart, who usually gets to sit back, survey what's happening in the play, then make his move, will have to clamp down on Martin.

Inevitably, it looks like the Broncos will need their defense to make a huge play in order to have a chance to win. The Patriots average 29 points per game, while the Broncos only 22. Not to mention the games that the Pats were all healthy, that number scratched 30.

I hope the Broncos win, but it'll be tough.

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