What makes up a great sports draft pick?

The idea of hope for better things to come is an ideal that propels many people in the world. The concept that if one keeps plugging, extraordinary rewards will follow. In professional sports, the annual drafting of college players into the major leagues is an exercise of hope for everyone involved. Fans get their hopes up. Executives drool at the tantalizing possibilities of a young star on their roster. Coaches dream up ways to use their shiny new toys. The players themselves look forward to a little help. It’s all gonna work out; until it doesn’t.

Between the NFL, NBA and MLB, there is an average of 30 young men picked in the 1st round of each draft. About only 50% of them pan out and actually, you know, aren't terrible. Why is it that sports executives paid millions of dollars to choose the best players in the world to play on their teams fail half of the time?

There are a couple of reasons. For one, being a successful athlete at any pro level is extremely difficult. Only like a tenth of a tenth of a tenth of the world’s population can claim to be a professional sports player and only about a tenth of those people are actually stars and live up to the stamp of being a first round pick.

Second, just because they are paid a ton of coin, does not mean all executives are exactly shrewd. In fact, just like the players, only about half of all executives are competent at their jobs. But going back to why so many players fail, it is a combination of intangibles. These days, players are flopping in their respective leagues due to an alarming ‘high’ combination of substance abuse and domestic violence. Those two, shall we say, extracurricular activities, have derailed dozens of careers. Perhaps teams should investigate a player’s mental makeup deeper before they strap all hope and gobs of money onto their backs.

Even though the idea of hope can be such a wonderful sensation, half the time reality cruelly steps in.