NBA lottery hope rankings
Being a lottery team can be exciting, but also excruciating.
There is the promise that a young prospect bursting with potential is about to be added to your team on a cheap rookie contract, and the team will win 5 of the next 10 championships (in fans' minds). On the flip side, there is the pressure to absolutely bat .1000 on that pick, since more lottery appearances = less long term job security (Unless you can convince your owner that it's all part of the process, something the folk hero Sam Hinkie managed to pull off for a whopping two-and-a-half seasons before he was replaced by the Colangelo family.)
For some teams (Philly, Minnesota), this lottery is just another opportunity to add a piece to a burgeoning core, while others (Phoenix, Orlando) have an urgency attached to their backs since its been 5 or more years since they made the playoffs and they still do not have a bonafide superstar to show for it.
Here is a fun power ranking of the current lottery teams with the least amount of hope as a franchise, to the most.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Their pick is going straight to Boston, which is pretty soul-crushing since this is one of the most talented drafts in the decade, and they will have only two late first round picks to show for it. GM Sean Marks has already proven himself to be a shrewd head honcho - he has snatched up first round picks in exchange for middle of the road veterans Thad Young and Bojan Bogdanovic- and used one of those picks on a versatile, playmaking wing with a smooth jumper and relentless slashing skills in Caris LeVert. Put in a dreadful situation, Marks has handled it in the best possible way. He takes flyers on young, imperfect prospects (K.J. McDaniels, Spencer Dinwiddie, Sean Kilpatrick) since, why not? He went after young wing players hard in restricted free agency, signing Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe to huge deals that the Heat and Blazers somewhat reluctantly matched.
With LeVert and ferocious wing defender/ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist impersonator Rondae Hollis Jefferson, the Nets' last two first round picks have shown nice flashes as a one-two punch on offense and defense. When the two players share the court together, the Nets outscore opponents by more than 4 points per 100 possessions. That number may seem small, but considering the Nets have a negative net rating as a whole, it reveals a ton about the promise and current production of the two players.
Then there are the team's two best players, Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez, veterans pushing 30 who, in all likelihood, will not be around for the next Brooklyn resurgence, which is currently on pace to hit the ground running by 2022 at the latest.
If Marks can hit on one of his two later first rounders, the Nets should be simply bad next year, not the sad mess they have been this year.
In the team's defense though, they have the ability to drop 141 points on a team (which they did). Coach Kenny Atkinson looks like a gem, and owner Mikhail Prokhorov looks like he will be more patient this time around. While watching the team feels like you're Gloucester getting his eyes bulged out, the organization is in good leadership hands. The distant future is bright, but boyyyy is it distant.
13. Detroit Pistons
After giving Cleveland a valiant effort in a 4-0 sweep in last year's playoffs, the Detroit Pistons were looking up. Their core six players were all 26 years old and under. Reggie Jackson was a scoring machine who would work on his playmaking skills over the summer. Andre Drummond, still only 23, would be molded by Stan Van Gundy into Dwight Howard 2.0. Stanley Johnson, a rookie, had made LeBron work to get his points. Tobias Harris, 23, was getting buckets with the ease of a seasoned veteran. Kentavious Caldwell Pope flashed some nice two way skills.
Fast forward to this year's playoffs, and the team is going to the lottery. The number of media members rivals the number of actual fans at games. Virtually the whole team has stagnated or regressed in a period where growth should be occurring. The only player to make even a mini leap, Caldwell Pope, is up for restricted free agency after the season, recently got charged with a DUI, and is expecting a max contract, something Detroit may not want to stomach. That's what's going on with their BEST player, which now has me thinking that the Pistons should be higher than the Nets.
When Detroit inevitably signs Caldwell Pope to a hefty deal, they will have roughly $80 million dollars committed to just four (very mediocre) players (the other three being Drummond, Jackson and Harris) per year. That's a pretty good way to get stuck in mediocrity.
The team is set to receive a draft pick in the late lottery, so the pick is probably not a difference maker. Jackson just went from Russell Westbrook's backup to......Ish Smith's. Drummond is a black hole on offense; the team gets outscored by almost 6 points per 100 possessions when he's is on the floor. When Drummond is paired with Jackson, supposedly the team's best two-man lineup, the Pistons get scorched by 8 points per 100 possessions.
The Pistons seem locked into no-man's-land, which is obviously the worst place to be in the league.
12. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are mighty similar to the Pistons. They are definitely a team smack in the middle of the league's hierarchy with no easy path to reach higher ground. Their star point guard, Kemba Walker, is a monster on the offensive end on a cheap long tern contract at just $12 million per season. ($12 may sound like a boatload, but compare it to Luol Deng getting $18 million to sit on the bench and its pennies).
For years, the Hornets have been unable to capitalize on their prime draft positioning, and that has set them back. They have busted on Adam Morrison and Bismarck Biyombo big, as well as only having Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to show for the 4th and 2nd picks in separate drafts. Yes, Zeller is a very solid center that when he doesn't suit up, the Hornets' record is worse, percentage wise, than the Nets. But as the 4th pick, more is expected from you than 10 points and 6 rebounds a game in your 5th year.
The same goes for Kidd-Gilchrist, who has proven to be a defensive hound, but a complete liability on offense. His jump shot is hilariously ugly, even after four consecutive years worth of puff piece articles detailing how he was improving his form. Once again, he is a very valuable player (lockdown perimeter defenders don't exactly grow on trees), but for the 2nd pick, that limited a skill set is a bust.
Opting to take Frank Kaminsky over a bunch of juicy Boston picks back in 2014 must sting in retrospect. Kaminsky is a fine backup, but those picks have the potential to be a franchise cornerstone. Whoops.
The Hornets also are only in year one of long term deals for forwards Nick Batum and Marvin Williams. With a Walker extension coming during the same timetable as those hefty deals, the Hornets could also be capped out when you include Zeller, Kidd-Gilchrist and Miles Plumlee's laughable $12 million per year salary.
In this draft, the Hornets would be wise to go for power forward Harry Giles, should he declare. Giles was in the same class talent-wise as Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Josh Jackson during his high school years, but three knee surgeries have sapped his confidence and athleticism. He is bound to drop in the draft, but if he is there, that is the kind of gamble the Hornets must make if they hope to become a powerhouse in the league. Giles definitely has some Chris Bosh potential, and the kid is still only 18 years old for God's sake!
The bright side: One of the Hornets youngest lineups is also one of its best. When the 28-and-under group of Walker, Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist, Kaminsky and Zeller share the floor, the Hornets outscore teams by more than 5 points per 100 possessions in those 170 minutes.
11. Orlando Magic
Five years after the Dwight Howard trade, here are the seven best players on the Magic: Nik Vucevic, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Bismarck Biyombo, Terrence Ross and Mario Hezonja.
None of those players, as of now, have shown they can be even the third best player on a championship contending team. Gordon, at only 21, has the most potential. However, he is about to wrap of his third year in the league, and he's still kind of the same enigma he was when he came out. In his defense, Gordon has been pigeonholed at the small forward position for the majority of his time in Orlando when clearly he is best suited at the power forward or even center position. Playing there, he can take advantage of slow footed big men with his otherworldly athleticism, where as a small forward, his lack of shooting hurts him.
The Magic are on pace for the 5th worst record, and anther trip to the lottery. GM Rob Hennigan could be canned any minute after years of giving away impact players (Victor Oladipo, Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, Serge Ibaka and the 11th overall pick) for what amounts to Terrence Ross and a late round pick. Meanwhile, those aforementioned players are flourishing under different infrastructures and the team is now letting pictures of their free agency and draft plans leak onto social media. Though let's be honest: teams would be much more interested to see a Spurs' whiteboard than the Orlando Magic's.
5 lottery trips still has not produced a bond-fide superstar, and that is why hope is running low. A spec of light: one of the Magic's youngest lineups is outscoring its opponents through the roof. When Payton (23), Fournier (24), Hezonja (22), Gordon (21) and Vucevic (26) share the court together, they blitz opposing teams by more than 28 points per 100 possessions. Yes, the lineup has only played 22 minutes together, but it's definitely a bright sign, since most young lineups get murdered due to the collective inexperience.
This is a top heavy draft, and the Magic could have a chance to draft someone like Jayson Tatum, a silky smooth combo forward who would work well next to Gordon. Still, with the GM on thin ice and no clear superstar, things are far from perfect.
10. Sacramento Kings
The situation is not as bad as it appears. While the sports world thought the cupboard was bare after the DeMarcus Cousins trade, the Kings actually have a couple of young keepers, with more on the way.
The 23-and-under trio of Buddy Hield, Willy Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere has shown they all belong in the league. Hield is a sweet-shooting two guard who is just starting to grasp the nuances of orchestrating a successful pick and roll. Cauley-Stein is a 7'0 monster with a sprawling 7'3 wingspan. He is big enough to protect the basket and mobile enough to corral guards on the perimeter. The Kings' defensive rating suffers when Cauley-Stein is on the bench. Then there is Labissiere, who dropped to the 28th pick in this past year's draft due to an underwhelming season at Kentucky. But now, as the season nears an end, Labissiere is putting up 32 points in a game, showcasing an improving jumper and moving his feet on defense. A twin-towers lineup with him and Cauley-Stein can work. When the two bigs share the court, the Kings outscore opponents by 4 points per 100 possessions. Even the Kings' widely panned first round pick this year, a 19-year-old 7 footer named Giorgos Papagiannis, has flashed experienced post moves.
Still, in all likelihood, the trio of Hield, Cauley-Stein and Labissiere will never reach superstardom, but they can act as 3/5ths of a starting lineup surrounded by two other stars. Where will those two other stars come from? Well, the Kings are set to receive the tow top 10 picks in this loaded lottery.
Imagine a De'Aaron Fox-Buddy Hield-Jonathan Issac-Skal-Cauley-Stein lineup. I'm already drooling at that combination of athleticism and shooting.
The team is still owned by one of the league's worst owners, and GM Vlade Divac is by no means an expert at his job. But if he can get this draft right, and the team will be very interesting in the future. Though who am I kidding, with Vivek and Vlade running the show, the Kings will never not be interesting.
9. Dallas Mavericks
You have to hand it to the Mavericks. They will do whatever is humanly possible in order to not tank. It's like they're allergic to the practice. And while the strategy of cycling through second tier free agents year in and year out has not really worked, it's refreshing to see an organization refuse to get sucked into the tanking game, where a worse record yields greater young talent.
The current product is a team stuck smack in the middle. The Mavs tried clawing their way to the playoffs but ultimately fell short, leaving them with a late lottery pick which, barring a major stroke of luck, won't yield that game changing star the team will soon be looking for to replace the 38 year old Dirk.
The greatest shooting big man of all time has been a pillar for the organization, and since he pledged to return for another season, hope can never be too low with the knowledge Dirk will still be donning a Mavericks uniform. He is a legend in Dallas. He still has the best net rating on the team and has taken countless pay cuts throughout the years. Let's just say he's probably expecting a box full of money to mysteriously appear in front of his doorstep one day, courtesy of a man named Carc Muban.
In the past year, the Mavs have added the 24 year old Harrison Barnes via free agency and 23 year old Nerlens Noel via a robbery of Bryan Colangelo. Having two young and elastic two way players to potentially build around in the years to come is a solid way to navigate an upcoming post-Dirk reality. One problem: with Noel set to hit restricted free agency as the salary cap goes on steroids, the Mavs could be looking at a team with Barnes, Noel and swingman Wesley Matthews as the three highest paid players for the foreseeable future. Each of those players brings a very nice skill set to the table, but that's putting a hard cap (literally) on how great your team can really be.
Some specks of promise reside on the current roster though. While most of the Mavs' primarily used lineups have been crushed by the opposition, the lineup of folk hero Yogi Ferrell-Seth Curry-Matthews-Barnes and Noel has stomped opponents by 16 points per 100 possessions, which is better than the Warriors' starting lineup. The 30 year old Matthews surrounded by a quartet of 26 and under players is torching teams through defensive versatility and the tried and true method of surrounding a rim running big on offense by shooters, slashers and playmakers. It's a viable long term lineup that the Mavs can go to as their version of a death lineup.
Unfortunately, even amid a top 5 coach in warlock Rick Carlsile, the Mavs just do not have near the talent to compete with the heavy hitters in the West, and a late lottery pick probably is not changing that, though it certainly won't hurt.
8. New York Knicks
The only reason the Knicks are not dead freaking last on this list is because they have Kristaps Porzingis on their roster. Look around the team's one ray of golden hope in the 7'1 Latvian beast, and all you see is washed up vets on contracts paying them as if they are superstars (Melo, D Rose and Joakim Noah), bench players with very low upside (the third Plumlee brother, Ron Baker, Chasson Randle and Maurice Ndour) and just players who look like computer generated players on NBA 2K.
The only players who Knicks czar Phil Jackson should even be considering keeping around for the team to eventually build around Porzingis are Kyle O'Quinn, Justin Holiday, Willy Hernangomez, Courtney Lee and Lance Thomas (and yeah, maybe Baker and his hair). Those are all role players, but at least they know their place and won't hinder Porzingis' development.
What the team can look forward to, courtesy of a third straight 50 loss season, is a juicy lottery pick in a top-heavy draft that just happens to be loaded with point guards, a position the Knicks desperately need to upgrade after this year's Derrick Rose renaissance fell flat on its face and tore its meniscus.
The Knicks do not sport a record as atrocious as the Suns, lakers or Nets, so they probably won't have a shot at nagging Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz. Their draft range (around 4-8) is sure to yield one of Dennis Smith Jr., D'Aaron Fox and Frank Nlikina. All those players would have been top five picks last year, but are bumped down due to the ridiculous talent of this year's class.
All three have the potential to be orchestrating a devastating pick and roll/pop duet with the Zinger by next season. If you can start a team with a fantastic big man and guard pick and roll, the rest of the roster building part will come easy.
7. Los Angeles Lakers
After four straight losing seasons, the Lakers decided to blow it all up, firing Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak and hiring Magic Johnson and Kobe's former agent, Rob Pelinka. While that move has so far been a big PR boost, Magic and Pelinka still need execute a winning vision.
Sadly, any on-court execution for the Lakers has been nonexistent this season. D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and Brandon Ingram, the team's last three lottery picks, bleed points and have been getting destroyed as a whole when they all play together. None of them can defend a lick, as advertised by the team's atrocious 122 defensive rating when the three share the court.
The poor advanced stats are not as bad as they sound. Russell, Randle and Ingram, on average, are only 20 years old. Most youthful players stink since they are so inexperienced and prone to be physically and mentally bullied by craftier veterans who have been around long enough to know the tricks of the trade.
It is concerning that none of their three hopeful stars have shown they have much potential to be elite defenders. Russell and Ingram are too skinny and slow-footed, while Randle has T-Rex sized arms that prevent him from contesting more shots. For the Lakers to eventually return to glory, these young pups will need to be surrounded by a two way superstar.
That's where things get tricky. The easiest path to one of those superstars is through selecting them in the draft. However, the Lakers only have a coin toss's chance of retaining their top 3 protected pick this year, or it goes to Philly. To make matters worse, if the pick falls out of the top 3 this year, the Lakers also have to give Orlando their unprotected 2019 first as part of the Dwightmare trade.
A source said that Magic is going to be the man in the nerve-wrecking private lottery room.
"Magic is going to bring the pick home with us," a Lakers executive said.
The team better hope so. With stars such as Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz and Josh Jackson within arms reach, losing out on someone like them would be crushing. But make no mistake, if the Lakers retain their pick and Lonzo is on the board, they will take him no matter who else is available, a source within the team said.
A super exciting team could be just around the corner. Draft Lonzo, plug him next to Russell, Randle and Ingram, and you have a bouncy lineup that has four playmakers all over the floor. Sprinkle in some Ivaka Zubac 20 foot swishes, Jordan Clarkson threes and Larry Nance posters, plus another exciting prospect courtesy of Houston's first round pick, and you have a serious team in a couple of years.
Alas, if they don't keep the pick, their young stars stagnate and everyone continues to play no defense at all, not even Magic's shining smile or Pelinka's cool personality can save them.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Suns
Heat
Nuggets
76ers
Wolves
There is the promise that a young prospect bursting with potential is about to be added to your team on a cheap rookie contract, and the team will win 5 of the next 10 championships (in fans' minds). On the flip side, there is the pressure to absolutely bat .1000 on that pick, since more lottery appearances = less long term job security (Unless you can convince your owner that it's all part of the process, something the folk hero Sam Hinkie managed to pull off for a whopping two-and-a-half seasons before he was replaced by the Colangelo family.)
For some teams (Philly, Minnesota), this lottery is just another opportunity to add a piece to a burgeoning core, while others (Phoenix, Orlando) have an urgency attached to their backs since its been 5 or more years since they made the playoffs and they still do not have a bonafide superstar to show for it.
Here is a fun power ranking of the current lottery teams with the least amount of hope as a franchise, to the most.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Their pick is going straight to Boston, which is pretty soul-crushing since this is one of the most talented drafts in the decade, and they will have only two late first round picks to show for it. GM Sean Marks has already proven himself to be a shrewd head honcho - he has snatched up first round picks in exchange for middle of the road veterans Thad Young and Bojan Bogdanovic- and used one of those picks on a versatile, playmaking wing with a smooth jumper and relentless slashing skills in Caris LeVert. Put in a dreadful situation, Marks has handled it in the best possible way. He takes flyers on young, imperfect prospects (K.J. McDaniels, Spencer Dinwiddie, Sean Kilpatrick) since, why not? He went after young wing players hard in restricted free agency, signing Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe to huge deals that the Heat and Blazers somewhat reluctantly matched.
With LeVert and ferocious wing defender/ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist impersonator Rondae Hollis Jefferson, the Nets' last two first round picks have shown nice flashes as a one-two punch on offense and defense. When the two players share the court together, the Nets outscore opponents by more than 4 points per 100 possessions. That number may seem small, but considering the Nets have a negative net rating as a whole, it reveals a ton about the promise and current production of the two players.
Then there are the team's two best players, Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez, veterans pushing 30 who, in all likelihood, will not be around for the next Brooklyn resurgence, which is currently on pace to hit the ground running by 2022 at the latest.
If Marks can hit on one of his two later first rounders, the Nets should be simply bad next year, not the sad mess they have been this year.
In the team's defense though, they have the ability to drop 141 points on a team (which they did). Coach Kenny Atkinson looks like a gem, and owner Mikhail Prokhorov looks like he will be more patient this time around. While watching the team feels like you're Gloucester getting his eyes bulged out, the organization is in good leadership hands. The distant future is bright, but boyyyy is it distant.
13. Detroit Pistons
After giving Cleveland a valiant effort in a 4-0 sweep in last year's playoffs, the Detroit Pistons were looking up. Their core six players were all 26 years old and under. Reggie Jackson was a scoring machine who would work on his playmaking skills over the summer. Andre Drummond, still only 23, would be molded by Stan Van Gundy into Dwight Howard 2.0. Stanley Johnson, a rookie, had made LeBron work to get his points. Tobias Harris, 23, was getting buckets with the ease of a seasoned veteran. Kentavious Caldwell Pope flashed some nice two way skills.
Fast forward to this year's playoffs, and the team is going to the lottery. The number of media members rivals the number of actual fans at games. Virtually the whole team has stagnated or regressed in a period where growth should be occurring. The only player to make even a mini leap, Caldwell Pope, is up for restricted free agency after the season, recently got charged with a DUI, and is expecting a max contract, something Detroit may not want to stomach. That's what's going on with their BEST player, which now has me thinking that the Pistons should be higher than the Nets.
When Detroit inevitably signs Caldwell Pope to a hefty deal, they will have roughly $80 million dollars committed to just four (very mediocre) players (the other three being Drummond, Jackson and Harris) per year. That's a pretty good way to get stuck in mediocrity.
The team is set to receive a draft pick in the late lottery, so the pick is probably not a difference maker. Jackson just went from Russell Westbrook's backup to......Ish Smith's. Drummond is a black hole on offense; the team gets outscored by almost 6 points per 100 possessions when he's is on the floor. When Drummond is paired with Jackson, supposedly the team's best two-man lineup, the Pistons get scorched by 8 points per 100 possessions.
The Pistons seem locked into no-man's-land, which is obviously the worst place to be in the league.
12. Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are mighty similar to the Pistons. They are definitely a team smack in the middle of the league's hierarchy with no easy path to reach higher ground. Their star point guard, Kemba Walker, is a monster on the offensive end on a cheap long tern contract at just $12 million per season. ($12 may sound like a boatload, but compare it to Luol Deng getting $18 million to sit on the bench and its pennies).
For years, the Hornets have been unable to capitalize on their prime draft positioning, and that has set them back. They have busted on Adam Morrison and Bismarck Biyombo big, as well as only having Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to show for the 4th and 2nd picks in separate drafts. Yes, Zeller is a very solid center that when he doesn't suit up, the Hornets' record is worse, percentage wise, than the Nets. But as the 4th pick, more is expected from you than 10 points and 6 rebounds a game in your 5th year.
The same goes for Kidd-Gilchrist, who has proven to be a defensive hound, but a complete liability on offense. His jump shot is hilariously ugly, even after four consecutive years worth of puff piece articles detailing how he was improving his form. Once again, he is a very valuable player (lockdown perimeter defenders don't exactly grow on trees), but for the 2nd pick, that limited a skill set is a bust.
Opting to take Frank Kaminsky over a bunch of juicy Boston picks back in 2014 must sting in retrospect. Kaminsky is a fine backup, but those picks have the potential to be a franchise cornerstone. Whoops.
The Hornets also are only in year one of long term deals for forwards Nick Batum and Marvin Williams. With a Walker extension coming during the same timetable as those hefty deals, the Hornets could also be capped out when you include Zeller, Kidd-Gilchrist and Miles Plumlee's laughable $12 million per year salary.
In this draft, the Hornets would be wise to go for power forward Harry Giles, should he declare. Giles was in the same class talent-wise as Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Josh Jackson during his high school years, but three knee surgeries have sapped his confidence and athleticism. He is bound to drop in the draft, but if he is there, that is the kind of gamble the Hornets must make if they hope to become a powerhouse in the league. Giles definitely has some Chris Bosh potential, and the kid is still only 18 years old for God's sake!
The bright side: One of the Hornets youngest lineups is also one of its best. When the 28-and-under group of Walker, Batum, Kidd-Gilchrist, Kaminsky and Zeller share the floor, the Hornets outscore teams by more than 5 points per 100 possessions in those 170 minutes.
11. Orlando Magic
Five years after the Dwight Howard trade, here are the seven best players on the Magic: Nik Vucevic, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Bismarck Biyombo, Terrence Ross and Mario Hezonja.
None of those players, as of now, have shown they can be even the third best player on a championship contending team. Gordon, at only 21, has the most potential. However, he is about to wrap of his third year in the league, and he's still kind of the same enigma he was when he came out. In his defense, Gordon has been pigeonholed at the small forward position for the majority of his time in Orlando when clearly he is best suited at the power forward or even center position. Playing there, he can take advantage of slow footed big men with his otherworldly athleticism, where as a small forward, his lack of shooting hurts him.
The Magic are on pace for the 5th worst record, and anther trip to the lottery. GM Rob Hennigan could be canned any minute after years of giving away impact players (Victor Oladipo, Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, Serge Ibaka and the 11th overall pick) for what amounts to Terrence Ross and a late round pick. Meanwhile, those aforementioned players are flourishing under different infrastructures and the team is now letting pictures of their free agency and draft plans leak onto social media. Though let's be honest: teams would be much more interested to see a Spurs' whiteboard than the Orlando Magic's.
5 lottery trips still has not produced a bond-fide superstar, and that is why hope is running low. A spec of light: one of the Magic's youngest lineups is outscoring its opponents through the roof. When Payton (23), Fournier (24), Hezonja (22), Gordon (21) and Vucevic (26) share the court together, they blitz opposing teams by more than 28 points per 100 possessions. Yes, the lineup has only played 22 minutes together, but it's definitely a bright sign, since most young lineups get murdered due to the collective inexperience.
This is a top heavy draft, and the Magic could have a chance to draft someone like Jayson Tatum, a silky smooth combo forward who would work well next to Gordon. Still, with the GM on thin ice and no clear superstar, things are far from perfect.
10. Sacramento Kings
The situation is not as bad as it appears. While the sports world thought the cupboard was bare after the DeMarcus Cousins trade, the Kings actually have a couple of young keepers, with more on the way.
The 23-and-under trio of Buddy Hield, Willy Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere has shown they all belong in the league. Hield is a sweet-shooting two guard who is just starting to grasp the nuances of orchestrating a successful pick and roll. Cauley-Stein is a 7'0 monster with a sprawling 7'3 wingspan. He is big enough to protect the basket and mobile enough to corral guards on the perimeter. The Kings' defensive rating suffers when Cauley-Stein is on the bench. Then there is Labissiere, who dropped to the 28th pick in this past year's draft due to an underwhelming season at Kentucky. But now, as the season nears an end, Labissiere is putting up 32 points in a game, showcasing an improving jumper and moving his feet on defense. A twin-towers lineup with him and Cauley-Stein can work. When the two bigs share the court, the Kings outscore opponents by 4 points per 100 possessions. Even the Kings' widely panned first round pick this year, a 19-year-old 7 footer named Giorgos Papagiannis, has flashed experienced post moves.
Still, in all likelihood, the trio of Hield, Cauley-Stein and Labissiere will never reach superstardom, but they can act as 3/5ths of a starting lineup surrounded by two other stars. Where will those two other stars come from? Well, the Kings are set to receive the tow top 10 picks in this loaded lottery.
Imagine a De'Aaron Fox-Buddy Hield-Jonathan Issac-Skal-Cauley-Stein lineup. I'm already drooling at that combination of athleticism and shooting.
The team is still owned by one of the league's worst owners, and GM Vlade Divac is by no means an expert at his job. But if he can get this draft right, and the team will be very interesting in the future. Though who am I kidding, with Vivek and Vlade running the show, the Kings will never not be interesting.
9. Dallas Mavericks
You have to hand it to the Mavericks. They will do whatever is humanly possible in order to not tank. It's like they're allergic to the practice. And while the strategy of cycling through second tier free agents year in and year out has not really worked, it's refreshing to see an organization refuse to get sucked into the tanking game, where a worse record yields greater young talent.
The current product is a team stuck smack in the middle. The Mavs tried clawing their way to the playoffs but ultimately fell short, leaving them with a late lottery pick which, barring a major stroke of luck, won't yield that game changing star the team will soon be looking for to replace the 38 year old Dirk.
The greatest shooting big man of all time has been a pillar for the organization, and since he pledged to return for another season, hope can never be too low with the knowledge Dirk will still be donning a Mavericks uniform. He is a legend in Dallas. He still has the best net rating on the team and has taken countless pay cuts throughout the years. Let's just say he's probably expecting a box full of money to mysteriously appear in front of his doorstep one day, courtesy of a man named Carc Muban.
In the past year, the Mavs have added the 24 year old Harrison Barnes via free agency and 23 year old Nerlens Noel via a robbery of Bryan Colangelo. Having two young and elastic two way players to potentially build around in the years to come is a solid way to navigate an upcoming post-Dirk reality. One problem: with Noel set to hit restricted free agency as the salary cap goes on steroids, the Mavs could be looking at a team with Barnes, Noel and swingman Wesley Matthews as the three highest paid players for the foreseeable future. Each of those players brings a very nice skill set to the table, but that's putting a hard cap (literally) on how great your team can really be.
Some specks of promise reside on the current roster though. While most of the Mavs' primarily used lineups have been crushed by the opposition, the lineup of folk hero Yogi Ferrell-Seth Curry-Matthews-Barnes and Noel has stomped opponents by 16 points per 100 possessions, which is better than the Warriors' starting lineup. The 30 year old Matthews surrounded by a quartet of 26 and under players is torching teams through defensive versatility and the tried and true method of surrounding a rim running big on offense by shooters, slashers and playmakers. It's a viable long term lineup that the Mavs can go to as their version of a death lineup.
Unfortunately, even amid a top 5 coach in warlock Rick Carlsile, the Mavs just do not have near the talent to compete with the heavy hitters in the West, and a late lottery pick probably is not changing that, though it certainly won't hurt.
8. New York Knicks
The only reason the Knicks are not dead freaking last on this list is because they have Kristaps Porzingis on their roster. Look around the team's one ray of golden hope in the 7'1 Latvian beast, and all you see is washed up vets on contracts paying them as if they are superstars (Melo, D Rose and Joakim Noah), bench players with very low upside (the third Plumlee brother, Ron Baker, Chasson Randle and Maurice Ndour) and just players who look like computer generated players on NBA 2K.
The only players who Knicks czar Phil Jackson should even be considering keeping around for the team to eventually build around Porzingis are Kyle O'Quinn, Justin Holiday, Willy Hernangomez, Courtney Lee and Lance Thomas (and yeah, maybe Baker and his hair). Those are all role players, but at least they know their place and won't hinder Porzingis' development.
What the team can look forward to, courtesy of a third straight 50 loss season, is a juicy lottery pick in a top-heavy draft that just happens to be loaded with point guards, a position the Knicks desperately need to upgrade after this year's Derrick Rose renaissance fell flat on its face and tore its meniscus.
The Knicks do not sport a record as atrocious as the Suns, lakers or Nets, so they probably won't have a shot at nagging Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz. Their draft range (around 4-8) is sure to yield one of Dennis Smith Jr., D'Aaron Fox and Frank Nlikina. All those players would have been top five picks last year, but are bumped down due to the ridiculous talent of this year's class.
All three have the potential to be orchestrating a devastating pick and roll/pop duet with the Zinger by next season. If you can start a team with a fantastic big man and guard pick and roll, the rest of the roster building part will come easy.
7. Los Angeles Lakers
After four straight losing seasons, the Lakers decided to blow it all up, firing Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak and hiring Magic Johnson and Kobe's former agent, Rob Pelinka. While that move has so far been a big PR boost, Magic and Pelinka still need execute a winning vision.
Sadly, any on-court execution for the Lakers has been nonexistent this season. D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and Brandon Ingram, the team's last three lottery picks, bleed points and have been getting destroyed as a whole when they all play together. None of them can defend a lick, as advertised by the team's atrocious 122 defensive rating when the three share the court.
The poor advanced stats are not as bad as they sound. Russell, Randle and Ingram, on average, are only 20 years old. Most youthful players stink since they are so inexperienced and prone to be physically and mentally bullied by craftier veterans who have been around long enough to know the tricks of the trade.
It is concerning that none of their three hopeful stars have shown they have much potential to be elite defenders. Russell and Ingram are too skinny and slow-footed, while Randle has T-Rex sized arms that prevent him from contesting more shots. For the Lakers to eventually return to glory, these young pups will need to be surrounded by a two way superstar.
That's where things get tricky. The easiest path to one of those superstars is through selecting them in the draft. However, the Lakers only have a coin toss's chance of retaining their top 3 protected pick this year, or it goes to Philly. To make matters worse, if the pick falls out of the top 3 this year, the Lakers also have to give Orlando their unprotected 2019 first as part of the Dwightmare trade.
A source said that Magic is going to be the man in the nerve-wrecking private lottery room.
"Magic is going to bring the pick home with us," a Lakers executive said.
The team better hope so. With stars such as Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz and Josh Jackson within arms reach, losing out on someone like them would be crushing. But make no mistake, if the Lakers retain their pick and Lonzo is on the board, they will take him no matter who else is available, a source within the team said.
A super exciting team could be just around the corner. Draft Lonzo, plug him next to Russell, Randle and Ingram, and you have a bouncy lineup that has four playmakers all over the floor. Sprinkle in some Ivaka Zubac 20 foot swishes, Jordan Clarkson threes and Larry Nance posters, plus another exciting prospect courtesy of Houston's first round pick, and you have a serious team in a couple of years.
Alas, if they don't keep the pick, their young stars stagnate and everyone continues to play no defense at all, not even Magic's shining smile or Pelinka's cool personality can save them.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Suns
Heat
Nuggets
76ers
Wolves
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