NBA over/under '17-'18 record predictions
The NBA is finally back! We made it! After an "off season" where Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward, Carmelo Anthony and Paul Millsap all switched teams, it's time to get back to the actual games. I'm here to predict if you should take the over or under on each team's projected win/loss record. At the end of the year, we can all check out to see how wrong this was.
Over/unders are based on Vegas Insiders.
Atlanta Hawks
Line: 25.5
The Hawks underwent quite the talent drain this summer. They lost a ton of defense in Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard and Thabo Sefalosha, then lost their most proficient scorer in Tim Hardaway Jr. for good measure. It should be noted though, that the Knicks grossly overpaid for his services and the Hawks were wise not to match the laughable 4 year, $72 million deal. What's left is point guard Dennis Schroder, who at 24 years-old, is still young enough to take another leap forward. Schroder is blazingly fast with the ball and uses his athleticism well to pester opposing guards. Coach Mike Budenholzer, fresh off losing his duties as the team's General Manager, can now just focus on squeezing every ounce of talent out of his barren roster, which will take a yeoman's effort. But people are wrongly sleeping on this team (ESPN ranked them the worst team in the league in their preseason power rankings). After Schroder, Budenholzer has hard-workers all over the roster. Gritty forward Taurean Prince should build off a solid rookie campaign. DeWayne Dedmon, while average on offense, should help anchor a stingy defense. There may not be much recognized talent here, but don't doubt Budenholzer's ability to extract the most out of his roster. He should defninitely drag this team over 25 wins.
Over
Boston Celtics
Line: 55.5
The Celtics made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and even pushed the Cavaliers to a respectable six games. However, after a summer of General Manager Danny Ainge finally parting with assets he hoarded for years, the team only returns Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier. It's an unprecedented amount of turnover, and is one of the reasons the Celtics' record may not reflect their actual talent level since it should take some time for the new pieces to mesh. Yes, moving on from the beloved Isaiah Thomas, defensive studs Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley, and Brooklyn's 2018 1st round pick will be a tough pill to swallow. Although, when stars Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and 2017 3rd overall pick Jason Tatum are coming on board, that pill is much more digestible. Irving is possibly the best pure one-on-one scorer in the association, and once Brad Stevens has a chance to play with Irving's superior skill set, the Celtics should be a full-fledged offensive juggernaut. Like most teams, Boston has a glaring weakness: rebounding. Horford is not physical enough down low, and if Marcus Morris starts at power forward alongside him, that's just asking to get consistently clobbered on the boards every night. The team signed bruising veteran Aron Baynes in free agency to beef up its front court, but Baynes is a prime candidate to be run off the floor in the playoffs due to his slow foot speed. Stevens is a whiz and he has the most talent at his disposal in his coaching career, however chemistry doesn't magically happen overnight. It will take a bit of time, and for that reason, the Celtics just miss their mark.
Under
Brooklyn Nets
Line: 27.5
The Nets have finally reached the last year of the debilitating Celtics trade orchestrated by mastermind Billy King four years ago. After this season, they control all of their future 1st round picks. Current General Manager Sean Marks was clearly dealt an awful hand. In fact, he wasn't dealt a hand at all. He smartly did what he could do: drive up the price on other teams' restricted free agents, use cap space to take on bad contracts and draft picks, and take flyers on athletic young players who showed potential. Marks hired the perfect coach in ex-Hawks assistant Kenny Atkinson, who really seems to know what he's doing despite his roster's deficiencies. Atkinson had his squad firing threes at a rapid pace and playing a super high tempo. The Nets may not have been efficient, but they were scrappy and relentless. The team's big move this summer was to trade Nets lifer Brook Lopez and the 27th pick to the Los Angeles Lakers for Timofey Mozgov and D'Angelo Russell. In his two years in Hollywood, Russell was plagued by poor play and a need to secretly video teammates admitting to cheating on their high profile girlfriends. His departure wasn't ugly, but it wasn't pretty either. Now in Brooklyn, Russell has the perfect opportunity to prove he can be a franchise point guard. Still only a baby at 21 years-old, he has plenty of time to turn it around. The Nets now have a three-way stable of savvy guards in Russell, Jeremy Lin and Caris LeVert who can all create for others and pour in buckets in the half court. On top of that, Marks drafted center Jarrett Allen, who happens to sport an old-school afro, which means he will automatically become the greatest Nets player of all- time. Also entering the program are two serviceable wings on pricy contracts in Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll. The team should be fun, but don't expect many wins.
Under
Charlotte Hornets
Line: 42.5
The Dwightmare has now relocated to Charlotte. In an otherwise superb Dwight Howard feature by Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins, what was not mentioned was how Howard has driven most of his teammates crazy throughout the years. As ESPN's Zach Lowe reported, when some Hawks players got word that Howard had been traded, they were "screaming in jubilation". Yup, that sounds like the Dwight we know and love. On the bright side, even though most of his teammates may have despised him, Howard anchored the league's 4th best defensive rating last season. He may botch post-ups, sulk when not given enough touches, alienate coaches, and not be able to defend in space, but there's no doubting he can still be a menacing defensive presence at the rim. As a whole, the Hornets have been the model franchise for mediocrity. Over the past four seasons, the team has won an average of a downright average 40 games. Other than electric point guard Kemba Walker, there isn't much else to grow excited about. Nic Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller are all injury prone. Frank "The Tank" Kaminsky is too slow footed at the center position. Marvin Williams is overpaid and declining rapidly. Counting on a 32 year-old center who has been on three teams in three seasons is a recipe for disappointment.
Under
Chicago Bulls
Line: 22
Just six seasons ago the Bulls sported a 23 year-old superstar point guard in Derrick Rose, a 25 year-old do-it-all center in Joakim Noah and one of the greatest defensive basketball minds in Tom Thibodeau. Oh, what a perilous beast the future can be. Fast forward to now and the team is being predicted to win not even 27% of their games. After Rose and Noah's bodies disintegrated and star forward Jimmy Butler was traded in the offseason, what's left is a mish-mash of extremely flawed young prospects and miscast veterans. Human trampoline Zach LaVine is still sidelined with a torn ACL, rookie Lauri Markkanen could either be the next Dirk Nowitski or Andrea Bargnani. Kris Dunn cannot shoot to save his life, Cameron Payne is injured and objectively horrible. However, 22 games is an awfully low bar, and the team plays in the disgraceful Eastern Conference, so there will be more opportunity for potential wins. It's a joke that center Robin Lopez will probably be the team's best player, but the wily seven-footer makes few mistakes and has an underrated array of post moves. He will also keep the offense flowing. It's going to be a season to forget for these Bulls, but they should scrape at least 23 wins.
Over
Cleveland Cavaliers
Line: 53.2
Losing Kyrie stings. Irving will never reveal exactly why he asked for a trade, but we can pick up the clues that he was tired of playing second-fiddle to LeBron. His loss. The new-look Cavs are a much deeper unit well positioned for the future after prying Brooklyn's valuable 2018 1st round pick from Boston. Jae Crowder should provide great defense, rebounding and three-point shooting, especially against the wing-heavy Warriors. When he returns from a mysterious hip injury, Isaiah Thomas should assume his old role of scoring on every poor defender tasked with attempting to corral him. The Cavs also underwent a huge starting lineup overhaul. The bruising Tristan Thompson and the eccentric J.R. Smith have been relegated to the bench, while Kevin Love assumes the full-time center job and newcomers Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose slot in at the guard positions. This should be fun, and while LeBron-led teams tend to pace themselves to prepare for the playoffs, 54 wins should be as easy as getting to first base with Matt Harvey pitching against you.
Over
Dallas Mavericks
Line: 35.5
One must respect owner Mark Cuban. He has been a vehement opposer to tanking the past few seasons, and as a result, his team has been stuck peddling mud, smack in the middle of no where. Not futile enough to land a high draft pick, nor nearly competent enough to make noise in the playoffs. On the flip side, Cuban's Mavs may have just been gifted a present by the Karma gods when explosive guard Dennis Smith fell to them in the 2017 draft. Smith was one of those prospects where analysts simply soured on him for no apparent reason. "Not playing on a winning team" and "doesn't pass enough" do not qualify as legitimate quips when traits should be valued over wins and there was nobody competent to pass to in the first place. Thanks to all that over-analyzing, Smith now finds himself on a veteran Mavs squad that, if he is up to the challenge, may be just the team to ride him to greatness. With a rim-running, defensive fiend in Nerlens Noel, the sweetest-shooting big man in history in Dirk Nowitski, two rock solid wings in Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews and a warlock of a coach in Rick Carlslile, Smith has a stable ecosystem for potential success. Problem is, Dirk cannot defend a lick, the team boasts no superstars, and Carlslile is basically guaranteed to bench Smith at some point due to the rookie's erratic style of play. The Mavs will compete though, and in the brutal West they are going to be hovering right near their designated over/under.
Over
Denver Nuggets
Line: 43.5
Before every season, pundits anoint too many young teams as "the team that makes the leap" when in reality only about one squad per year truly makes the jump from average to really freaking good. The Nuggets, after an offseason of signing human swiss-arms knife Paul Millsap, are ready. In the second half of last season, they boasted the second best offensive rating and missed the playoffs by only one game. Problem was, they got slaughtered like a pig on defense. Adding the savvy Millsap will not catapult the Nuggets into an elite defensive team, but their starting lineup now features Millsap, Gary Harris and Wilson Chandler, three elastic and versatile defenders who should at least make the defense respectable. Oh, and the offense will be even better. Serbian center Nikola Jokic may not look the part of a superstar: he is pudgy, doesn't have eye-popping athleticism or any signature dunks. What makes Jokic so special is his third eye in the passing game, finding open teammates when he's not even looking at them, stroking threes with ease and quietly bludgeoning poor opponents in the post before flipping in silky hook shots. He's only 22-years-old, and he is the reason the Nuggets should have real optimism heading into the season. He may look like a clown, but the only real clowns are the people who have to guard him. Sprinkle in a deep bench and a smart head coach in Mike Malone and you have a really strong team.
Over
Detroit Pistons
Line: 38.5
The Pistons are trying to put last year's factory of sadness behind them, where Reggie Jackson sulked, Andre Drummond stunk, and the rest of the team was a bore to watch. Now, there were some legitimate excuses. Jackson was hampered by a tricky knee injury that clearly sapped his quickness. Drummond also could not breath out of his left nostril, which clearly affected his stamina. Nonetheless, the Pistons are one of a handful of teams that has been mired in mediocrity, and there seems no easy way out. Drummond and Jackson's hefty contracts run through the 2020 season, so cap space will be virtually nonexistent. The team must bank on internal improvement. 21-year-old wing Stanley Johnson has underwhelmed his first couple seasons in the league, but the raw materials are there for a ferocious defender and relentless scorer. As with so many players, Johnson must improve his jump shot, where he converted a ghastly 29.2% of his three point attempts. Even though the Eastern Conference is bereft of quality teams, the Pistons will have a rough year.
Under
Golden State Warriors
Line: 67.5
The Warriors are entirely capable of reaching 70 wins if they really wanted to. The issue is, they are not playing for the regular season anymore. After three straight years of grueling, long playoff runs that leave less time to rest in the offseason, the Warriors will look to pace themselves more than ever. And by "pace themselves", that means resting players and subsequently losing some games. Because all that matters is winning another ring. Cautiously bet the under, even though everyone who remotely follows basketball knows this team could rip off 70 wins anytime they feel like it.
Under
Houston Rockets
Line: 54.5
The Rockets were a deep and talented team heading into the off season. Then, all they did was acquire one of the best point guards in the game, Chris Paul. On a first inspection, two ball-dominant guards sharing the court may not be a recipe for harmony, but Paul and James Harden are smart enough to make it work. They are both excellent spot-up shooters, so when one of them goes to work on offense, the other will be spacing the floor and keeping driving lanes open. The Paul-Harden fit may not be seamless, but it is one of the only pairings in the league that ensures 48 minutes of at least one Hall of Fame playmaker on the court. The Rockets are contenders not only because of their new guard pairing, though. Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute are three rugged defenders who can guard any position. Eric Gordon could win 6th man of the year. Clint Capela is a fortress protecting the paint. Even Ryan Anderson, who gets burned alive on defense in the playoffs, is a three-point specialist. Also, Nene is still a treat to watch. This is one of the deepest and most well-rounded teams in the league. Smash that over button.
Over
Indiana Pacers
Line: 30.5
After trading Paul George for a bag of peanuts, the Pacers made rebuilding hard on themselves. The men they received in return for the two-way superstar do not inspire much confidence, but at least have shown sparks of promise. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is only 21 years-old and showed a keen ability to find the open man and knock down threes in the pick-and-pop game. Guard Victor Oladipo stagnated in his one year paired with Russell Westbrook in the backcourt, but at least he grinds on defense, can jump through the roof and actually has a nice signing voice. The rest of the roster is a mix of role players who don't inspire much confidence. Coach Nate MacMillan is not the most creative tactician in the league, but he seems to know what he's doing on defense, as does assistant Dan Burke. The one hope is center Myles Turner, a 6'11 two-way beast. Turner can splash threes, score in the post and anchor a defense. At only 21, he is the Pacers' present and future. But his team is pretty futile.
Under
Los Angeles Clippers
Line: 42.5
Last season, the Clippers had a star point guard, but no depth at small forward or any other positions. Now, that equation has flipped, as Chris Paul fled to Houston this off season in exchange for a cadre of bench pieces. The Clippers also forayed into free agency, inking smooth playmaking small forward Danillo Gallinari to a three year deal. Even though the new equilibrium boasts less star talent, the old formula simply grew stale, with crushing playoff defeats and ill-timed injuries year in and year out. Something had to give. Paul's departure heaps more of the playmaking load on Blake Griffin, fresh off signing a $175 million contract. If Griffin can stay healthy, a big if with his lengthy injury history, he has proven he can be up to the challenge. He has excellent court vision and recently has expanded his jumper to the three-point line, subsequently opening up wider driving lanes for himself and his teammates. Another newcomer is a 30 year-old Serbian point guard, Milos Teodosic, with a passing acumen that stacks right up there with the Steve Nash and Ricky Rubio's of the world. He will be a delight all season even if he probably will be an atrocious defensive player by every statistical and objective measure possible. Yes, the West is brutal, but this Clippers team does have a star, two bookend defensive hounds in Pat Beverley and DeAndre Jordan, plus many other intriguing bits.
Over
Los Angeles Lakers
Line: 32.5
There is no denying this Lakers team is going to be electrifying to watch with Lonzo Ball at the helm surrounded by hungry young players craving to stand out in the league's biggest market. The problem is, wins will be few and far between. Excitement doesn't always equate to victory, and with minus defenders sprinkled throughout the starting lineup, (Ball, Brandon Ingram and whomever starts at power forward) the team is going to be whipped apart on defense. Kentavious Caldewell-Pope and Brook Lopez, the Lakers' two key veteran acquisitions, should prevent the losses from reaching max levels of absolute carnage. Lakers fans are going to love Lopez by the way; he's not well known after toiling away in Brooklyn his whole career, but he is almost a complete center. He can stroke it from deep, owns opponents in the paint, has nice passing chops and plays respectable position defense. The $18 million Caldwell-Pope signing was General Manager Rob Pelinka telling Pope's agent, Rich Paul, "This is our favor to you. Remember this next summer when your client LeBron is a free agent." On the bright side, at least one of Kyle Kuzma, a ripped Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. is going to break out into a sure starter. Also, once he gains more weight and stops getting thrown around, Ingram has the tools to be a real two-way player in this league. And Ball, despite his wacky yet effective shot form, will be right there with him.
Under
Memphis Grizzlies
Line: 38.5
Marc Gasol is quietly the best center in the game. He has no weakness, except sometimes he is not aggressive enough on offense. He can facilitate from anywhere on the court, splash threes and wall off the paint on defense. Only reason he isn't more universally recognized is because he's not overly athletic and he plays in the smallest market in the whole damn league. His point guard counterpart, Mike Conley, is just as good. Conley locks up on defense, orchestrates the offense and shoots a cool 40% from deep. Issues arise past these two stars. Chandler Parsons, paid like a superstar, was instead a broken pile of bones last year. The Grizzlies' starting wings could just as easily be playing in the D League. Their third best player is probably JaMychal Green, a versatile defensive piece and not much more. Zoinks! Grit n Grind also lost a chunk of its identity this summer when Tony "The Grindfather" Allen and Zach "Paid Everyone's Electricity Bill" Randoplh fled to other pastures. But if Gasol and Conley are healthy, no matter how much a bloodbath the Western Conference is, 38 wins is an easy benchmark to pass.
Over
Miami Heat
Line: 42.5
The Heat were a tale of two halves last season, sporting an 11-30 record the 1st half of the season and a 30-11 record the 2nd half. By the looks of Pat Riley's spending spree, he must believe that 2nd half team was the real Heat. He better be right, since the Heat clogged their cap bill until 2020 to shell out huge sums of money to Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Josh Richardson. On the bright side, they could be the deepest team in the league. They have a rigorous training program that always ensures they are the best conditioned of any team in the league, and that showed up in the Heat's crisp closeouts and sharp drive and cuts to the basket. The East is a wasteland and the Heat will make the playoffs this season. If not, at least we as fans get to watch Hassan Whiteside battle Joel Embiid on the court then on Twitter.
Over
Milwaukee Bucks
Line: 46.5
The Bucks have the longest collective wingspan in the league, with athletic specimens Giannis Antetokounmpo, Thon Maker, Kris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell compromising a towering starting lineup. Coach Jason Kidd plays to his personnel's unique physical advantages, employing a risky defensive scheme that creates gobs of steals but leaves open potential layups for offenses. At times the defense can be overwhelming, with arms as long as tree branches popping out from all sides. Opponents understandably get flustered and cough up turnovers. But the Bucks, like any team where the oldest starter, Middleton, is still only 25 years-old, are prone to mistakes. They also are not terribly deep after the bruising Greg Monroe comes off the bench. But Antetokounmpo changes the ceiling of their team. In fact, the 22 year-old, 6'11 Greek Freak eliminates any potential ceiling. The sky is literally the limit for this team.
Over
Minnesota Timberwolves
Line: 46.5
One of the more well-known stats in the NBA is that the poor Timberwolves have not been to the playoffs in 14 years. We have all heard the horror stories: drafting Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio before Steph Curry and not extending Kevin Love all four years is just the tip of the iceberg. Last season was a bit premature to expect much winning from the Wolves. Yes, Coach Tom Thibodeau was on board, but Karl Towns, Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins were still only 21 and clueless on defense. After an off season of exporting LaVine to Chicago for star Jimmy Butler, signing tough veterans Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, plus another year of experience for Towns and Wiggins, the playoffs are not only realistic, but expected. Even though the West is tough, the Timberwolves are too talented to miss out again. Butler and Towns are two of the top-15 players alive. Wiggins can put up 30 points in his sleep. Gibson shreds poor opponents on the boards. But, if Thibodeau adheres to his reputation for playing his guys too many minutes and draining their energy, this could end bad. Also, this team is not reaching 46 wins.
Under
New Orleans Pelicans
Line: 40.5
It may be very early in the process, but warning signs are starting to flicker for this team. Anthony Davis' contract expires in 3 seasons, DeMarcus Cousins could walk this summer and Jrue Holiday is on a ridiculous contract. But, coach Alvin Gentry has a year to make this work, and a Davis-Cousins pairing has the potential to be the perfect foil for a small-ball happy league. Last season's sample size, while small and polluted by faulty chemistry, showed promising signs. The Pelicans stifled opponents on defense and were respectable on offense. The issues start after the Davis, Cousins, Holiday trio. The Pelicans are bereft of wings, so spacing is going to be as cramped as a stadium parking lot after a game. This team is so talented, but horribly unbalanced, and it will be that lack of depth that is the Pelicans' downfall.
Under
New York Knicks
Line: 30.5
The Knicks, man. After wiping off the stink of Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony, the team at least has a fresher vibe in the locker room and facilities. Although, the team is drained of talent, other than 7'3 monster Kristaps Porzingis, a living, breathing, three-splashing, blocking machine. Perhaps the most comical position is center. Joakim Noah is suspended 20 games for violating the substance abuse policy, though his on-court impact still left a ton to be desired. Enes Kanter gets embarrassed on defense. Willy Hernangomez, while promising, won't see the court enough. Lastly, Kyle O'Quinn is the model for mediocrity. The whole team is going to get lit up on defense, and the offense is just going to be Tim Hardaway Jr. chucking up 30 shots a game while Porzingis screams for the ball in Latvian. 40 wins is a low bar, especially in the lowly East, but the Knicks could seriously be the worst team in the league.
Under
Oklahoma City Thunder
Line: 52.5
After his off season, Executive of the Year should be already locked up. Let's give Sam Presti a hand. He transformed a half-eaten chocolate bar into Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. No first round picks were given up. No stars. No potential stars. Just defensive sieves and average players. Moving forward, the Thunder have found a potential remedy to the evil Warriors. Throw out George, Andre Roberson and Jerami Grant to harass and envelope opposing wings. Let Russell Westbrook facilitate a bit more and Melo to feast on each team's third best defensive option. And while all that is going on, the toughest player in the league, center Steven Adams, will be bludgeoning everyone who comes near the paint. Just look at this destruction of Pat Beverley:
This can work. Billy Donovan is a smart and creative coach. Presti will make a move to get the team over the hump if needed. Anything but a Finals appearance would be failure. 52 wins should be a piece of cake.
Over
Orlando Magic
Line: 30.5
The Magic are paying D.J. Augustine, Nikola Vucevic and Bismarck Biyombo, three veterans on different timetables from the rest of the roster, a combined $36 million this season. Yikes! Biyombo has cinderblocks for hands, Vucevic can't anchor a defense and Augustine should be a backup on a contender. The Magic have been floating around aimlessly in their post-Dwight years. They have been horrible, but missed out on players like Joel Embiid, Karl Towns and Kristaps Porzingis because they weren't bad enough. Instead, they have a bust in Mario Hezonja, a point guard allergic to shooting in Elfrid Payton and an athletic marvel who still hasn't broken out in Aaron Gordon. The Magic are going to be fun this season as long as they glue Biyombo and Vooch to the bench and play Gordon and lanky rookie Jonathan Issac a boatload of minutes. Coach Frank Vogel has a long history of competence, but last season, his first with the Magic, was perplexing to say the least. He played Jeff Green 30 minutes too many and pigeonholed Gordon into the small forward position when everyone on the planet knew he was better suited as a power forward. This will painfully be another year of rebuilding for Magic fans, but with a top heavy draft on the horizon, if the team can finally luck into an elite prospect, they could finally set their trajectory back to relevance.
Under
Philadelphia 76ers
Line: 40.5
This explanation is simple. No matter how much of a revelation Ben Simmons or Markelle Fultz are, the 76ers will win over 40 games if Embiid plays 60 games. If he plays less, they are probably doomed. At only 23 years-old, Embiid has already proven he's a superstar when healthy. The 7'2 specimen erases shots at the rim, already converts 37% of his three pointers, overpowers defenders in the paint and holds his own corralling jittery guards in space. He can also pump fake at the top of the key, wiggle his way to the hoop and crush a world destroying slam dunk. Orbiting Embiid is last year's 1st overall pick Simmons, who has one of the best court visions in the league but treats outside jumpers as if they are some disease. He shot only 3 three-pointers all season at LSU and has strayed away from the arc in preseason as well. But Simmons has a tight handle, a third eye in the back of his head and a carved body perfectly suited to take pounding in the paint. Pick-and-rolls with him and Embiid will have opponents in therapy by the end of the game. And with a deadeye shooter in JJ Redick and lockdown defender in Robert Covington, the 76ers are actually constructed to make a run in the Eastern Conference. Coach Brett Brown deserves this. How he endured 4 years of coaching D-league level talent and somehow managed to stay out of a mental asylum will forever be his greatest coaching achievement no matter how many future championships he wins. He's earned this.
Over
Phoenix Suns
Line: 28.5
Here's the subtle difference between the Magic and Suns. Yes, they will both be horrible and lose a lot of games this year, however the Magic will make you want to gouge your eyes out watching them. The Suns have at least embraced playing their young guys. They trotted out the youngest starting lineup in league history last season. They benched Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley because they were actually good basketball players. They sent Eric Bledsoe home for two months because he was winning them too many games. Now, the tank for either Michael Porter or Luka Doncic continues and the Suns have some intriguing young talent to fool around with. The one surefire star is shooting guard Devin Booker, a scoring assassin who can drop the ball in the bucket from anywhere on the court. Still only 20 years-old, watching Booker develop is going to be a treat. Next is rookie Josh Jackson, a defensive-minded wing who should soak up a ton of minutes. His jump shot is broken as of now, but he's only 20. After him are the young big men, Marquise Chriss and Dragan Bender, each only 20 years old themselves. Chriss was erratic last season, but he showcased great energy and a promising offensive game. Bender was slowed by a shattered ankle, but when he returned he displayed nice passing skills and a high basketball IQ. If the Suns play these mistake-prone youngsters, the losses will pile up like trash during the workers strike in NYC. But at least it should be entertaining.
Under
Portland Trail-Blazers
Line: 40.5
The Blazers General manager, Neil Olshey, has been a fantastic executive throughout the years. In his time in LA, he snagged DeAndre Jordan in the 2nd round, the when he migrated to portland, stole the pick that became Damian Lillard from the Nets in exchange for a washed Gerald Wallace. He also drafted CJ McCollum, an absolute home run at the end of the lottery. Although, the 2016 off season was one to forget for the otherwise excellent GM. Olshey tossed around enormous sums of money to unproven players. A combined yearly salary of $56 million for Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner, Myles Leonard and Mo Harkless is an absolute joke. Now, Olshey has already started to repent for his unthinkable sins. He stole Jusuf Nurkic and a 1st round pick from the Nuggets at the trade deadline and shipped off Crabbe's insane contract to none other than the Brooklyn Nets. The team is still pretty capped out, but it's not as bad as it was. With a full season of Nurkic, A.K.A. the Bosnian Beast, the Blazers have hope to maintain their explosive offense while upgrading their previously laughable defense. If Nurkic can stay engaged, the Blazers are a one wing trade away from potentially making noise in the playoffs. In the meantime, listen to Damian Lillard's new album. He's a star on and off the court: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJLapUAHIG8
Over
Sacramento Kings
Line: 29
The Kings are two teams merged into one. There are the veterans: George Hill, Garrett Temple, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, Kosta Kofus; the boring, yet effective and smart group. Then the bench is a burst of color and athleticism. Rookie point guard De'aaron Fox, sniper Buddy Hield, Justin Jackson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Georgios Papagiannis. They will assuredly have worst plus-minuses than their wilier counterparts, but should be much more entertaining to watch. All the Kings' players combined is not enough to even sniff the playoffs anyway, so play the kids, coach!
Under
San Antonio Spurs
Line: 53.5
No Kawhi Leonard or Tony Parker to start the season. Starting a 37 year-old turnstyle on defense in Pau Gasol, a human slo motion reel in Kyle Anderson and a raw 21-year-old in Dejounte Murray. But one still would be wise to pick the over, because....Spurs. While coach Gregg Popovitch may be missing some key pieces, his Spurs do have continuity and chemistry, a rare and underrated advantage compared to other elite teams still working out rotational kinks. The bench should again be the best in the league. Patty Mills and Manu Ginobli are back to their old tricks running an unstoppable two-man game. Rudy Gay arrived and could be a major piece in crunch time as a versatile scoring wing. Davis Bertans and Bryn Forbes both stroke it from deep and remain intriguing. King Joffrey Lauvergne remains a solid bench big. Even with all the supposed issues, this team should never be counted out. Don't forget, they were pulling the Warriors' pants down in the Conference Finals until Zaza Patchulia cruelly twisted Kawhi Leonard's ankle. The Spurs will be just fine, and probably even better. An easy choice.
Over
Toronto Raptors
Line: 47.5
The Raptors seemed to have accepted their place in the NBA's hierarchy: good, but not good enough. And you know what? That's okay! Not every team can be fantastic or horrible. And the Raptors have grown very adept at stacking up solid regular seasons then wetting the bed in the playoffs. They are one of the few good teams returning with great chemistry. The whole gang is back together. Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, fresh off new contracts, are back to grind on defense and juice the offense. Hopefully DeMar DeRozan, who has become addicted to contested midrange jump shots, expands his game to the three point arc. There is definitely an air of inevitability for these Raptors, but they will probably win at least 50 games.
Over
Utah Jazz
Line: 38.5
Losing Gordon Hayward and George Hill are massive blows, but the Jazz responded calmly and professionally. They wisely traded for Ricky Rubio, a Spaniard with perhaps the best court vision in the association. Rubio will set up everyone for success on offense and be his usual irritating self on defense. Speaking of defense, the Jazz could have the best in the league. Rubio is a top 5 point guard defensively. Center Rudy Gobert, with a willowy 7'9 wingspan, is an undisputed top 3 defender in the league. Sprinkle in Thabo Sefolosha, a cinderblock on the perimeter, the tough Derrick Favors, long Rod Hood and ferocious rookie Donovan Mitchell. Watching Quinn Snyder's crew attempt to score though, will be a trying experience for all involved. The Jazz are banking on a breakout year from Hood to minimize the blow of Hayward's playmaking. Hood's emergence is far from guaranteed, while this team should have the slowest pace in the NBA for a record three years running. Making the playoffs is going to require a team-wide effort and precise attention to detail. It can be done, but because of their lack of access to easy buckets, the Jazz have little room for error.
Over
Washington Wizards
Line: 48.5
I believe this is finally the year the Wizards win at least 50 games. It's been 33 years since the last time they did so, and with superstar point guard John Wall and top 5 shooting guard Bradley Beal, it will happen barring unforeseen circumstances. Otto Porter will probably never justify his draft position or his enormous contract he just received, but he's a serviceable third option. He can guard three positions respectably and honed his three-point shot to the tune of a scorching 43% conversion rate last season. Even the spunky Kelly Oubre should prove his value if coach Scott Brooks peels him off the bench. This Wizards team is not without its warts, however. They are still paying Ian Mahimi a disgusting $16 million per year until 2020. The bench is iffy at best. Markieff Morris is injured for the first month of the season. Marcin Gortat is 32 years-old and lible to get run off the court in the playoffs. Last post season, Wall even admitted he was begging Brooks for a breather, but Brooks basically said they couldn't survive without him. The Wizards have a fire to them, believing they don't receive enough credit for their accomplishments. A trip of the Eastern Conference Finals would stop the doubters from looking the other way. The Wizards are coming.
Over
Over/unders are based on Vegas Insiders.
Atlanta Hawks
Line: 25.5
The Hawks underwent quite the talent drain this summer. They lost a ton of defense in Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard and Thabo Sefalosha, then lost their most proficient scorer in Tim Hardaway Jr. for good measure. It should be noted though, that the Knicks grossly overpaid for his services and the Hawks were wise not to match the laughable 4 year, $72 million deal. What's left is point guard Dennis Schroder, who at 24 years-old, is still young enough to take another leap forward. Schroder is blazingly fast with the ball and uses his athleticism well to pester opposing guards. Coach Mike Budenholzer, fresh off losing his duties as the team's General Manager, can now just focus on squeezing every ounce of talent out of his barren roster, which will take a yeoman's effort. But people are wrongly sleeping on this team (ESPN ranked them the worst team in the league in their preseason power rankings). After Schroder, Budenholzer has hard-workers all over the roster. Gritty forward Taurean Prince should build off a solid rookie campaign. DeWayne Dedmon, while average on offense, should help anchor a stingy defense. There may not be much recognized talent here, but don't doubt Budenholzer's ability to extract the most out of his roster. He should defninitely drag this team over 25 wins.
Over
Boston Celtics
Line: 55.5
The Celtics made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last season and even pushed the Cavaliers to a respectable six games. However, after a summer of General Manager Danny Ainge finally parting with assets he hoarded for years, the team only returns Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier. It's an unprecedented amount of turnover, and is one of the reasons the Celtics' record may not reflect their actual talent level since it should take some time for the new pieces to mesh. Yes, moving on from the beloved Isaiah Thomas, defensive studs Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley, and Brooklyn's 2018 1st round pick will be a tough pill to swallow. Although, when stars Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and 2017 3rd overall pick Jason Tatum are coming on board, that pill is much more digestible. Irving is possibly the best pure one-on-one scorer in the association, and once Brad Stevens has a chance to play with Irving's superior skill set, the Celtics should be a full-fledged offensive juggernaut. Like most teams, Boston has a glaring weakness: rebounding. Horford is not physical enough down low, and if Marcus Morris starts at power forward alongside him, that's just asking to get consistently clobbered on the boards every night. The team signed bruising veteran Aron Baynes in free agency to beef up its front court, but Baynes is a prime candidate to be run off the floor in the playoffs due to his slow foot speed. Stevens is a whiz and he has the most talent at his disposal in his coaching career, however chemistry doesn't magically happen overnight. It will take a bit of time, and for that reason, the Celtics just miss their mark.
Under
Brooklyn Nets
Line: 27.5
The Nets have finally reached the last year of the debilitating Celtics trade orchestrated by mastermind Billy King four years ago. After this season, they control all of their future 1st round picks. Current General Manager Sean Marks was clearly dealt an awful hand. In fact, he wasn't dealt a hand at all. He smartly did what he could do: drive up the price on other teams' restricted free agents, use cap space to take on bad contracts and draft picks, and take flyers on athletic young players who showed potential. Marks hired the perfect coach in ex-Hawks assistant Kenny Atkinson, who really seems to know what he's doing despite his roster's deficiencies. Atkinson had his squad firing threes at a rapid pace and playing a super high tempo. The Nets may not have been efficient, but they were scrappy and relentless. The team's big move this summer was to trade Nets lifer Brook Lopez and the 27th pick to the Los Angeles Lakers for Timofey Mozgov and D'Angelo Russell. In his two years in Hollywood, Russell was plagued by poor play and a need to secretly video teammates admitting to cheating on their high profile girlfriends. His departure wasn't ugly, but it wasn't pretty either. Now in Brooklyn, Russell has the perfect opportunity to prove he can be a franchise point guard. Still only a baby at 21 years-old, he has plenty of time to turn it around. The Nets now have a three-way stable of savvy guards in Russell, Jeremy Lin and Caris LeVert who can all create for others and pour in buckets in the half court. On top of that, Marks drafted center Jarrett Allen, who happens to sport an old-school afro, which means he will automatically become the greatest Nets player of all- time. Also entering the program are two serviceable wings on pricy contracts in Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll. The team should be fun, but don't expect many wins.
Under
Charlotte Hornets
Line: 42.5
The Dwightmare has now relocated to Charlotte. In an otherwise superb Dwight Howard feature by Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins, what was not mentioned was how Howard has driven most of his teammates crazy throughout the years. As ESPN's Zach Lowe reported, when some Hawks players got word that Howard had been traded, they were "screaming in jubilation". Yup, that sounds like the Dwight we know and love. On the bright side, even though most of his teammates may have despised him, Howard anchored the league's 4th best defensive rating last season. He may botch post-ups, sulk when not given enough touches, alienate coaches, and not be able to defend in space, but there's no doubting he can still be a menacing defensive presence at the rim. As a whole, the Hornets have been the model franchise for mediocrity. Over the past four seasons, the team has won an average of a downright average 40 games. Other than electric point guard Kemba Walker, there isn't much else to grow excited about. Nic Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller are all injury prone. Frank "The Tank" Kaminsky is too slow footed at the center position. Marvin Williams is overpaid and declining rapidly. Counting on a 32 year-old center who has been on three teams in three seasons is a recipe for disappointment.
Under
Chicago Bulls
Line: 22
Just six seasons ago the Bulls sported a 23 year-old superstar point guard in Derrick Rose, a 25 year-old do-it-all center in Joakim Noah and one of the greatest defensive basketball minds in Tom Thibodeau. Oh, what a perilous beast the future can be. Fast forward to now and the team is being predicted to win not even 27% of their games. After Rose and Noah's bodies disintegrated and star forward Jimmy Butler was traded in the offseason, what's left is a mish-mash of extremely flawed young prospects and miscast veterans. Human trampoline Zach LaVine is still sidelined with a torn ACL, rookie Lauri Markkanen could either be the next Dirk Nowitski or Andrea Bargnani. Kris Dunn cannot shoot to save his life, Cameron Payne is injured and objectively horrible. However, 22 games is an awfully low bar, and the team plays in the disgraceful Eastern Conference, so there will be more opportunity for potential wins. It's a joke that center Robin Lopez will probably be the team's best player, but the wily seven-footer makes few mistakes and has an underrated array of post moves. He will also keep the offense flowing. It's going to be a season to forget for these Bulls, but they should scrape at least 23 wins.
Over
Cleveland Cavaliers
Line: 53.2
Losing Kyrie stings. Irving will never reveal exactly why he asked for a trade, but we can pick up the clues that he was tired of playing second-fiddle to LeBron. His loss. The new-look Cavs are a much deeper unit well positioned for the future after prying Brooklyn's valuable 2018 1st round pick from Boston. Jae Crowder should provide great defense, rebounding and three-point shooting, especially against the wing-heavy Warriors. When he returns from a mysterious hip injury, Isaiah Thomas should assume his old role of scoring on every poor defender tasked with attempting to corral him. The Cavs also underwent a huge starting lineup overhaul. The bruising Tristan Thompson and the eccentric J.R. Smith have been relegated to the bench, while Kevin Love assumes the full-time center job and newcomers Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose slot in at the guard positions. This should be fun, and while LeBron-led teams tend to pace themselves to prepare for the playoffs, 54 wins should be as easy as getting to first base with Matt Harvey pitching against you.
Over
Dallas Mavericks
Line: 35.5
One must respect owner Mark Cuban. He has been a vehement opposer to tanking the past few seasons, and as a result, his team has been stuck peddling mud, smack in the middle of no where. Not futile enough to land a high draft pick, nor nearly competent enough to make noise in the playoffs. On the flip side, Cuban's Mavs may have just been gifted a present by the Karma gods when explosive guard Dennis Smith fell to them in the 2017 draft. Smith was one of those prospects where analysts simply soured on him for no apparent reason. "Not playing on a winning team" and "doesn't pass enough" do not qualify as legitimate quips when traits should be valued over wins and there was nobody competent to pass to in the first place. Thanks to all that over-analyzing, Smith now finds himself on a veteran Mavs squad that, if he is up to the challenge, may be just the team to ride him to greatness. With a rim-running, defensive fiend in Nerlens Noel, the sweetest-shooting big man in history in Dirk Nowitski, two rock solid wings in Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews and a warlock of a coach in Rick Carlslile, Smith has a stable ecosystem for potential success. Problem is, Dirk cannot defend a lick, the team boasts no superstars, and Carlslile is basically guaranteed to bench Smith at some point due to the rookie's erratic style of play. The Mavs will compete though, and in the brutal West they are going to be hovering right near their designated over/under.
Over
Denver Nuggets
Line: 43.5
Before every season, pundits anoint too many young teams as "the team that makes the leap" when in reality only about one squad per year truly makes the jump from average to really freaking good. The Nuggets, after an offseason of signing human swiss-arms knife Paul Millsap, are ready. In the second half of last season, they boasted the second best offensive rating and missed the playoffs by only one game. Problem was, they got slaughtered like a pig on defense. Adding the savvy Millsap will not catapult the Nuggets into an elite defensive team, but their starting lineup now features Millsap, Gary Harris and Wilson Chandler, three elastic and versatile defenders who should at least make the defense respectable. Oh, and the offense will be even better. Serbian center Nikola Jokic may not look the part of a superstar: he is pudgy, doesn't have eye-popping athleticism or any signature dunks. What makes Jokic so special is his third eye in the passing game, finding open teammates when he's not even looking at them, stroking threes with ease and quietly bludgeoning poor opponents in the post before flipping in silky hook shots. He's only 22-years-old, and he is the reason the Nuggets should have real optimism heading into the season. He may look like a clown, but the only real clowns are the people who have to guard him. Sprinkle in a deep bench and a smart head coach in Mike Malone and you have a really strong team.
Over
Detroit Pistons
Line: 38.5
The Pistons are trying to put last year's factory of sadness behind them, where Reggie Jackson sulked, Andre Drummond stunk, and the rest of the team was a bore to watch. Now, there were some legitimate excuses. Jackson was hampered by a tricky knee injury that clearly sapped his quickness. Drummond also could not breath out of his left nostril, which clearly affected his stamina. Nonetheless, the Pistons are one of a handful of teams that has been mired in mediocrity, and there seems no easy way out. Drummond and Jackson's hefty contracts run through the 2020 season, so cap space will be virtually nonexistent. The team must bank on internal improvement. 21-year-old wing Stanley Johnson has underwhelmed his first couple seasons in the league, but the raw materials are there for a ferocious defender and relentless scorer. As with so many players, Johnson must improve his jump shot, where he converted a ghastly 29.2% of his three point attempts. Even though the Eastern Conference is bereft of quality teams, the Pistons will have a rough year.
Under
Golden State Warriors
Line: 67.5
The Warriors are entirely capable of reaching 70 wins if they really wanted to. The issue is, they are not playing for the regular season anymore. After three straight years of grueling, long playoff runs that leave less time to rest in the offseason, the Warriors will look to pace themselves more than ever. And by "pace themselves", that means resting players and subsequently losing some games. Because all that matters is winning another ring. Cautiously bet the under, even though everyone who remotely follows basketball knows this team could rip off 70 wins anytime they feel like it.
Under
Houston Rockets
Line: 54.5
The Rockets were a deep and talented team heading into the off season. Then, all they did was acquire one of the best point guards in the game, Chris Paul. On a first inspection, two ball-dominant guards sharing the court may not be a recipe for harmony, but Paul and James Harden are smart enough to make it work. They are both excellent spot-up shooters, so when one of them goes to work on offense, the other will be spacing the floor and keeping driving lanes open. The Paul-Harden fit may not be seamless, but it is one of the only pairings in the league that ensures 48 minutes of at least one Hall of Fame playmaker on the court. The Rockets are contenders not only because of their new guard pairing, though. Trevor Ariza, PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute are three rugged defenders who can guard any position. Eric Gordon could win 6th man of the year. Clint Capela is a fortress protecting the paint. Even Ryan Anderson, who gets burned alive on defense in the playoffs, is a three-point specialist. Also, Nene is still a treat to watch. This is one of the deepest and most well-rounded teams in the league. Smash that over button.
Over
Indiana Pacers
Line: 30.5
After trading Paul George for a bag of peanuts, the Pacers made rebuilding hard on themselves. The men they received in return for the two-way superstar do not inspire much confidence, but at least have shown sparks of promise. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is only 21 years-old and showed a keen ability to find the open man and knock down threes in the pick-and-pop game. Guard Victor Oladipo stagnated in his one year paired with Russell Westbrook in the backcourt, but at least he grinds on defense, can jump through the roof and actually has a nice signing voice. The rest of the roster is a mix of role players who don't inspire much confidence. Coach Nate MacMillan is not the most creative tactician in the league, but he seems to know what he's doing on defense, as does assistant Dan Burke. The one hope is center Myles Turner, a 6'11 two-way beast. Turner can splash threes, score in the post and anchor a defense. At only 21, he is the Pacers' present and future. But his team is pretty futile.
Under
Los Angeles Clippers
Line: 42.5
Last season, the Clippers had a star point guard, but no depth at small forward or any other positions. Now, that equation has flipped, as Chris Paul fled to Houston this off season in exchange for a cadre of bench pieces. The Clippers also forayed into free agency, inking smooth playmaking small forward Danillo Gallinari to a three year deal. Even though the new equilibrium boasts less star talent, the old formula simply grew stale, with crushing playoff defeats and ill-timed injuries year in and year out. Something had to give. Paul's departure heaps more of the playmaking load on Blake Griffin, fresh off signing a $175 million contract. If Griffin can stay healthy, a big if with his lengthy injury history, he has proven he can be up to the challenge. He has excellent court vision and recently has expanded his jumper to the three-point line, subsequently opening up wider driving lanes for himself and his teammates. Another newcomer is a 30 year-old Serbian point guard, Milos Teodosic, with a passing acumen that stacks right up there with the Steve Nash and Ricky Rubio's of the world. He will be a delight all season even if he probably will be an atrocious defensive player by every statistical and objective measure possible. Yes, the West is brutal, but this Clippers team does have a star, two bookend defensive hounds in Pat Beverley and DeAndre Jordan, plus many other intriguing bits.
Over
Los Angeles Lakers
Line: 32.5
There is no denying this Lakers team is going to be electrifying to watch with Lonzo Ball at the helm surrounded by hungry young players craving to stand out in the league's biggest market. The problem is, wins will be few and far between. Excitement doesn't always equate to victory, and with minus defenders sprinkled throughout the starting lineup, (Ball, Brandon Ingram and whomever starts at power forward) the team is going to be whipped apart on defense. Kentavious Caldewell-Pope and Brook Lopez, the Lakers' two key veteran acquisitions, should prevent the losses from reaching max levels of absolute carnage. Lakers fans are going to love Lopez by the way; he's not well known after toiling away in Brooklyn his whole career, but he is almost a complete center. He can stroke it from deep, owns opponents in the paint, has nice passing chops and plays respectable position defense. The $18 million Caldwell-Pope signing was General Manager Rob Pelinka telling Pope's agent, Rich Paul, "This is our favor to you. Remember this next summer when your client LeBron is a free agent." On the bright side, at least one of Kyle Kuzma, a ripped Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. is going to break out into a sure starter. Also, once he gains more weight and stops getting thrown around, Ingram has the tools to be a real two-way player in this league. And Ball, despite his wacky yet effective shot form, will be right there with him.
Under
Memphis Grizzlies
Line: 38.5
Marc Gasol is quietly the best center in the game. He has no weakness, except sometimes he is not aggressive enough on offense. He can facilitate from anywhere on the court, splash threes and wall off the paint on defense. Only reason he isn't more universally recognized is because he's not overly athletic and he plays in the smallest market in the whole damn league. His point guard counterpart, Mike Conley, is just as good. Conley locks up on defense, orchestrates the offense and shoots a cool 40% from deep. Issues arise past these two stars. Chandler Parsons, paid like a superstar, was instead a broken pile of bones last year. The Grizzlies' starting wings could just as easily be playing in the D League. Their third best player is probably JaMychal Green, a versatile defensive piece and not much more. Zoinks! Grit n Grind also lost a chunk of its identity this summer when Tony "The Grindfather" Allen and Zach "Paid Everyone's Electricity Bill" Randoplh fled to other pastures. But if Gasol and Conley are healthy, no matter how much a bloodbath the Western Conference is, 38 wins is an easy benchmark to pass.
Over
Miami Heat
Line: 42.5
The Heat were a tale of two halves last season, sporting an 11-30 record the 1st half of the season and a 30-11 record the 2nd half. By the looks of Pat Riley's spending spree, he must believe that 2nd half team was the real Heat. He better be right, since the Heat clogged their cap bill until 2020 to shell out huge sums of money to Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Josh Richardson. On the bright side, they could be the deepest team in the league. They have a rigorous training program that always ensures they are the best conditioned of any team in the league, and that showed up in the Heat's crisp closeouts and sharp drive and cuts to the basket. The East is a wasteland and the Heat will make the playoffs this season. If not, at least we as fans get to watch Hassan Whiteside battle Joel Embiid on the court then on Twitter.
Over
Milwaukee Bucks
Line: 46.5
The Bucks have the longest collective wingspan in the league, with athletic specimens Giannis Antetokounmpo, Thon Maker, Kris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon and Tony Snell compromising a towering starting lineup. Coach Jason Kidd plays to his personnel's unique physical advantages, employing a risky defensive scheme that creates gobs of steals but leaves open potential layups for offenses. At times the defense can be overwhelming, with arms as long as tree branches popping out from all sides. Opponents understandably get flustered and cough up turnovers. But the Bucks, like any team where the oldest starter, Middleton, is still only 25 years-old, are prone to mistakes. They also are not terribly deep after the bruising Greg Monroe comes off the bench. But Antetokounmpo changes the ceiling of their team. In fact, the 22 year-old, 6'11 Greek Freak eliminates any potential ceiling. The sky is literally the limit for this team.
Over
Minnesota Timberwolves
Line: 46.5
One of the more well-known stats in the NBA is that the poor Timberwolves have not been to the playoffs in 14 years. We have all heard the horror stories: drafting Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio before Steph Curry and not extending Kevin Love all four years is just the tip of the iceberg. Last season was a bit premature to expect much winning from the Wolves. Yes, Coach Tom Thibodeau was on board, but Karl Towns, Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins were still only 21 and clueless on defense. After an off season of exporting LaVine to Chicago for star Jimmy Butler, signing tough veterans Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson, plus another year of experience for Towns and Wiggins, the playoffs are not only realistic, but expected. Even though the West is tough, the Timberwolves are too talented to miss out again. Butler and Towns are two of the top-15 players alive. Wiggins can put up 30 points in his sleep. Gibson shreds poor opponents on the boards. But, if Thibodeau adheres to his reputation for playing his guys too many minutes and draining their energy, this could end bad. Also, this team is not reaching 46 wins.
Under
New Orleans Pelicans
Line: 40.5
It may be very early in the process, but warning signs are starting to flicker for this team. Anthony Davis' contract expires in 3 seasons, DeMarcus Cousins could walk this summer and Jrue Holiday is on a ridiculous contract. But, coach Alvin Gentry has a year to make this work, and a Davis-Cousins pairing has the potential to be the perfect foil for a small-ball happy league. Last season's sample size, while small and polluted by faulty chemistry, showed promising signs. The Pelicans stifled opponents on defense and were respectable on offense. The issues start after the Davis, Cousins, Holiday trio. The Pelicans are bereft of wings, so spacing is going to be as cramped as a stadium parking lot after a game. This team is so talented, but horribly unbalanced, and it will be that lack of depth that is the Pelicans' downfall.
Under
New York Knicks
Line: 30.5
The Knicks, man. After wiping off the stink of Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony, the team at least has a fresher vibe in the locker room and facilities. Although, the team is drained of talent, other than 7'3 monster Kristaps Porzingis, a living, breathing, three-splashing, blocking machine. Perhaps the most comical position is center. Joakim Noah is suspended 20 games for violating the substance abuse policy, though his on-court impact still left a ton to be desired. Enes Kanter gets embarrassed on defense. Willy Hernangomez, while promising, won't see the court enough. Lastly, Kyle O'Quinn is the model for mediocrity. The whole team is going to get lit up on defense, and the offense is just going to be Tim Hardaway Jr. chucking up 30 shots a game while Porzingis screams for the ball in Latvian. 40 wins is a low bar, especially in the lowly East, but the Knicks could seriously be the worst team in the league.
Under
Oklahoma City Thunder
Line: 52.5
After his off season, Executive of the Year should be already locked up. Let's give Sam Presti a hand. He transformed a half-eaten chocolate bar into Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. No first round picks were given up. No stars. No potential stars. Just defensive sieves and average players. Moving forward, the Thunder have found a potential remedy to the evil Warriors. Throw out George, Andre Roberson and Jerami Grant to harass and envelope opposing wings. Let Russell Westbrook facilitate a bit more and Melo to feast on each team's third best defensive option. And while all that is going on, the toughest player in the league, center Steven Adams, will be bludgeoning everyone who comes near the paint. Just look at this destruction of Pat Beverley:
Over
Orlando Magic
Line: 30.5
The Magic are paying D.J. Augustine, Nikola Vucevic and Bismarck Biyombo, three veterans on different timetables from the rest of the roster, a combined $36 million this season. Yikes! Biyombo has cinderblocks for hands, Vucevic can't anchor a defense and Augustine should be a backup on a contender. The Magic have been floating around aimlessly in their post-Dwight years. They have been horrible, but missed out on players like Joel Embiid, Karl Towns and Kristaps Porzingis because they weren't bad enough. Instead, they have a bust in Mario Hezonja, a point guard allergic to shooting in Elfrid Payton and an athletic marvel who still hasn't broken out in Aaron Gordon. The Magic are going to be fun this season as long as they glue Biyombo and Vooch to the bench and play Gordon and lanky rookie Jonathan Issac a boatload of minutes. Coach Frank Vogel has a long history of competence, but last season, his first with the Magic, was perplexing to say the least. He played Jeff Green 30 minutes too many and pigeonholed Gordon into the small forward position when everyone on the planet knew he was better suited as a power forward. This will painfully be another year of rebuilding for Magic fans, but with a top heavy draft on the horizon, if the team can finally luck into an elite prospect, they could finally set their trajectory back to relevance.
Under
Philadelphia 76ers
Line: 40.5
This explanation is simple. No matter how much of a revelation Ben Simmons or Markelle Fultz are, the 76ers will win over 40 games if Embiid plays 60 games. If he plays less, they are probably doomed. At only 23 years-old, Embiid has already proven he's a superstar when healthy. The 7'2 specimen erases shots at the rim, already converts 37% of his three pointers, overpowers defenders in the paint and holds his own corralling jittery guards in space. He can also pump fake at the top of the key, wiggle his way to the hoop and crush a world destroying slam dunk. Orbiting Embiid is last year's 1st overall pick Simmons, who has one of the best court visions in the league but treats outside jumpers as if they are some disease. He shot only 3 three-pointers all season at LSU and has strayed away from the arc in preseason as well. But Simmons has a tight handle, a third eye in the back of his head and a carved body perfectly suited to take pounding in the paint. Pick-and-rolls with him and Embiid will have opponents in therapy by the end of the game. And with a deadeye shooter in JJ Redick and lockdown defender in Robert Covington, the 76ers are actually constructed to make a run in the Eastern Conference. Coach Brett Brown deserves this. How he endured 4 years of coaching D-league level talent and somehow managed to stay out of a mental asylum will forever be his greatest coaching achievement no matter how many future championships he wins. He's earned this.
Over
Phoenix Suns
Line: 28.5
Here's the subtle difference between the Magic and Suns. Yes, they will both be horrible and lose a lot of games this year, however the Magic will make you want to gouge your eyes out watching them. The Suns have at least embraced playing their young guys. They trotted out the youngest starting lineup in league history last season. They benched Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley because they were actually good basketball players. They sent Eric Bledsoe home for two months because he was winning them too many games. Now, the tank for either Michael Porter or Luka Doncic continues and the Suns have some intriguing young talent to fool around with. The one surefire star is shooting guard Devin Booker, a scoring assassin who can drop the ball in the bucket from anywhere on the court. Still only 20 years-old, watching Booker develop is going to be a treat. Next is rookie Josh Jackson, a defensive-minded wing who should soak up a ton of minutes. His jump shot is broken as of now, but he's only 20. After him are the young big men, Marquise Chriss and Dragan Bender, each only 20 years old themselves. Chriss was erratic last season, but he showcased great energy and a promising offensive game. Bender was slowed by a shattered ankle, but when he returned he displayed nice passing skills and a high basketball IQ. If the Suns play these mistake-prone youngsters, the losses will pile up like trash during the workers strike in NYC. But at least it should be entertaining.
Under
Portland Trail-Blazers
Line: 40.5
The Blazers General manager, Neil Olshey, has been a fantastic executive throughout the years. In his time in LA, he snagged DeAndre Jordan in the 2nd round, the when he migrated to portland, stole the pick that became Damian Lillard from the Nets in exchange for a washed Gerald Wallace. He also drafted CJ McCollum, an absolute home run at the end of the lottery. Although, the 2016 off season was one to forget for the otherwise excellent GM. Olshey tossed around enormous sums of money to unproven players. A combined yearly salary of $56 million for Allen Crabbe, Evan Turner, Myles Leonard and Mo Harkless is an absolute joke. Now, Olshey has already started to repent for his unthinkable sins. He stole Jusuf Nurkic and a 1st round pick from the Nuggets at the trade deadline and shipped off Crabbe's insane contract to none other than the Brooklyn Nets. The team is still pretty capped out, but it's not as bad as it was. With a full season of Nurkic, A.K.A. the Bosnian Beast, the Blazers have hope to maintain their explosive offense while upgrading their previously laughable defense. If Nurkic can stay engaged, the Blazers are a one wing trade away from potentially making noise in the playoffs. In the meantime, listen to Damian Lillard's new album. He's a star on and off the court: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJLapUAHIG8
Over
Sacramento Kings
Line: 29
The Kings are two teams merged into one. There are the veterans: George Hill, Garrett Temple, Vince Carter, Zach Randolph, Kosta Kofus; the boring, yet effective and smart group. Then the bench is a burst of color and athleticism. Rookie point guard De'aaron Fox, sniper Buddy Hield, Justin Jackson, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Georgios Papagiannis. They will assuredly have worst plus-minuses than their wilier counterparts, but should be much more entertaining to watch. All the Kings' players combined is not enough to even sniff the playoffs anyway, so play the kids, coach!
Under
San Antonio Spurs
Line: 53.5
No Kawhi Leonard or Tony Parker to start the season. Starting a 37 year-old turnstyle on defense in Pau Gasol, a human slo motion reel in Kyle Anderson and a raw 21-year-old in Dejounte Murray. But one still would be wise to pick the over, because....Spurs. While coach Gregg Popovitch may be missing some key pieces, his Spurs do have continuity and chemistry, a rare and underrated advantage compared to other elite teams still working out rotational kinks. The bench should again be the best in the league. Patty Mills and Manu Ginobli are back to their old tricks running an unstoppable two-man game. Rudy Gay arrived and could be a major piece in crunch time as a versatile scoring wing. Davis Bertans and Bryn Forbes both stroke it from deep and remain intriguing. King Joffrey Lauvergne remains a solid bench big. Even with all the supposed issues, this team should never be counted out. Don't forget, they were pulling the Warriors' pants down in the Conference Finals until Zaza Patchulia cruelly twisted Kawhi Leonard's ankle. The Spurs will be just fine, and probably even better. An easy choice.
Over
Toronto Raptors
Line: 47.5
The Raptors seemed to have accepted their place in the NBA's hierarchy: good, but not good enough. And you know what? That's okay! Not every team can be fantastic or horrible. And the Raptors have grown very adept at stacking up solid regular seasons then wetting the bed in the playoffs. They are one of the few good teams returning with great chemistry. The whole gang is back together. Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, fresh off new contracts, are back to grind on defense and juice the offense. Hopefully DeMar DeRozan, who has become addicted to contested midrange jump shots, expands his game to the three point arc. There is definitely an air of inevitability for these Raptors, but they will probably win at least 50 games.
Over
Utah Jazz
Line: 38.5
Losing Gordon Hayward and George Hill are massive blows, but the Jazz responded calmly and professionally. They wisely traded for Ricky Rubio, a Spaniard with perhaps the best court vision in the association. Rubio will set up everyone for success on offense and be his usual irritating self on defense. Speaking of defense, the Jazz could have the best in the league. Rubio is a top 5 point guard defensively. Center Rudy Gobert, with a willowy 7'9 wingspan, is an undisputed top 3 defender in the league. Sprinkle in Thabo Sefolosha, a cinderblock on the perimeter, the tough Derrick Favors, long Rod Hood and ferocious rookie Donovan Mitchell. Watching Quinn Snyder's crew attempt to score though, will be a trying experience for all involved. The Jazz are banking on a breakout year from Hood to minimize the blow of Hayward's playmaking. Hood's emergence is far from guaranteed, while this team should have the slowest pace in the NBA for a record three years running. Making the playoffs is going to require a team-wide effort and precise attention to detail. It can be done, but because of their lack of access to easy buckets, the Jazz have little room for error.
Over
Washington Wizards
Line: 48.5
I believe this is finally the year the Wizards win at least 50 games. It's been 33 years since the last time they did so, and with superstar point guard John Wall and top 5 shooting guard Bradley Beal, it will happen barring unforeseen circumstances. Otto Porter will probably never justify his draft position or his enormous contract he just received, but he's a serviceable third option. He can guard three positions respectably and honed his three-point shot to the tune of a scorching 43% conversion rate last season. Even the spunky Kelly Oubre should prove his value if coach Scott Brooks peels him off the bench. This Wizards team is not without its warts, however. They are still paying Ian Mahimi a disgusting $16 million per year until 2020. The bench is iffy at best. Markieff Morris is injured for the first month of the season. Marcin Gortat is 32 years-old and lible to get run off the court in the playoffs. Last post season, Wall even admitted he was begging Brooks for a breather, but Brooks basically said they couldn't survive without him. The Wizards have a fire to them, believing they don't receive enough credit for their accomplishments. A trip of the Eastern Conference Finals would stop the doubters from looking the other way. The Wizards are coming.
Over
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