Every playoff team's best crunch time lineup
Crunch time (officially the last five minutes of a close game) in general is the ultimate test of an NBA team's ceiling. A win or loss is on the line, everybody is tired and the defensive intensity is usually at its peak. It's also the perfect time for a team to unleash it's best possible five-man combination.
If that sounded intense, crunch time in an NBA playoff game is in a whole other galaxy of pressure. Seasons, contracts, money, jobs and legacies are all on the line, out in the open. It's a place where players and teams either realize they can take their game to a higher level (Damian Lillard in 2015), or get their hopes crushed and be endlessly ridiculed as a choker (The 2012-2017 Clippers).
It is not always in a team's best interest to play their best lineups too much in the regular season. The Warriors' feared Death Lineup has only played a total of 127 minutes this season. This is because asking Kevin Durant and Draymond Green to battle with behemoths down low takes an enormous toll on their bodies, so it should only be deployed when absolutely necessary.
Another reason not to play your best lineup too often is for fear of another team over-scouting that specific lineup, which loses it's edge if teams have enough game film to prepare for it. Again, the Warriors almost never ran a Steph Curry-Kevin Durant pick-and-roll last season, even though it was quite possibly the deadliest play in basketball. But coach Steve Kerr only unleashed the lethal play in the Finals, and the Cavs had no answer, and minimal game film to study from.
But back to crunch time. Everything is on the line. There is nothing left to be waiting for. It's imperative a team rolls out it's best lineup. For some teams, it is not quite clear which specific five-man pairing is the best. Does it REALLY matter if you surround James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza with PJ Tucker as opposed to Luc Mbah a Moute? Well, here are the groupings I would play if I were coach of each playoff team.
EAST
Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valinciunas
The Raptors are one of those teams that is so deep that it may be a disadvantage come playoff time, where having solid depth is helpful yet not as essential since teams can play their best players more minutes due to the rest in between playoff games. This five-man grouping has blitzed opponents is over 100 minutes together this season, outscoring them by a ridiculous 25 points per 100 possessions. Lowry and DeRozan will no doubt be on the court, and while this time last year Valinciunas would probably be sulking on the bench, he has completely transformed his game and bought into what coach Dwayne Casey is preaching. Valinciunas is a beast in the post, where he ranks in the 95th percentile in efficiency. Ibaka may have lost about 30% of his athleticism from his Thunder days, but he can still knock down threes and serve as a versatile perimeter and interior defender. He's also massively experienced, which is an intangible hard to quantify but extremely valuable in the postseason hothouse. And lastly, VanVleet has developed into a gritty, hard-nosed player who has led the Raptors' league-best bench and has connected on a knockdown 41 percent of his three-point attempts.
Boston Celtics: Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Al Horford
This lineup has only played together for 19 minutes this season, so while its plus-18 net rating should be taken with a grain of salt, it is also a juicy taste-test of this group's potential. When the Celtics get healthy next year, this group will probably swap out Rozier and Morris for Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving, a minor upgrade. But the Celtics must first deal with the present, where they have been severely depleted by injuries, but will still be a dangerous playoff team due to having home court advantage, the best coach in the league, and a smart, disciplined group of players. Rozier has significantly improved from last season. He's filled in for Kyrie Irving admirably with his relentless, pesky defense and explosive, sometimes-out-of-control approach on offense. Brown and Tatum are very green (pun-intended) and no matter what happens, this will be an invaluable learning experience for the two Jay's. Brown should assume lead scoring responsibilities while the 20-year-old Tatum will be expected to pour in 20 points a game. Morris may be erratic and shoot too many low-efficiency, contested midrange jumpers, but he is no doubt clutch and his microwave scoring will be needed. Horford is the team's best remaining player even though he only averages less than 13 points a game. But he's an excellent screener, facilitator and perfect positional and team defender. Horford will need to stretch himself offensively if the Celtics have any hope of making true noise in the playoffs.
Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, JJ Redick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
Assuming Embiid makes it back in time for playoff action, this grouping is pretty simple, since it sports the best net rating of any lineup that has played more than 300 minutes together. Space can get a tad too tight if Saric is not knocking down threes since Embiid is usually parked in the post while Simmons is well-known to be allergic to outside jumpers. But when everything is clicking (and it usually is) this lineup is a sight to behold. Ben Simmons in transition is like the terminator. He's either going to dunk on you or flick a slick pass to a wide-open teammate. JJ Redick never stops running, and he's made a scorching 46 percent of his three-point attempts since the beginning of March. Covington is the Vitruvian Man on defense, where he is top three in deflections. And lastly, Embiid, who has lived up to even the loftiest expectations. The only weakness in his game is his lackluster three-point percentage (30 percent) but even in that department he has a fine stroke and is still considered a shooting threat by defenses. The 76ers are the only team that has even a remote chance of knocking the King off his throne this postseason.
Cleveland Cavaliers: George Hill, Kyle Korver, LeBron James, Jeff Green, Kevin Love
When that group minus George Hill shares the floor, they roast teams to the scintillating tune of over 16 points per 100 possessions, sporting a blistering 123 offensive rating. Hill is probably the best option to complement that surprisingly-dominant quartet. He may not be the sticky defender he once was, but he's still competent and that's more than the Cavs could ever ask for. His 35 percent from three is acceptable, but that bumps up to 47 percent from the corners, an area where LeBron is particularly adept at finding players. Love is a great complement to LeBron. He spreads the floor, passes well and rebounds like a maniac. Green (at 31-years-old) has somehow just now had his breakout season we all expected five years ago. He's transformed himself into the perfect LeBron ally--a versatile defender and adequate three-point shooter who can also get buckets when the offense stalls. Korver may be squishy on defense, but he's always in the right spot and he's the best three-point shooter in the league. And lastly, LeBron. There is not much more to be said. At 33-years-old, he's still as dominant as ever. Double-team him, and he will rocket a bullet to an open shooter. Play man on him, and he will bully you into the stanchion. The King just submitted another 27-8-9 campaign and nobody bats an eye, because he's done basically the same thing the last ten years. He's remarkable. Never take him for granted.
Indiana Pacers: Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner
The Pacers are one of the NBA's best success stories. Expected to be a bottom-dweller, they exploded to 48 wins. They also are one of those teams that does not have a clear best ending lineup. Sure, Victor Oladipo, who has blossomed into a superstar and averaged 23 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.4 steals, should be out on the court. But after him? Everything is up for grabs. The above lineup has only played 45 minutes together all season and they have obliterated teams by 35 points per 100 possessions behind stellar offense and defense. Collison is solid if not spectacular, and he is a calming presence who does not make many mistakes. He won't win you a game, but he won't lose you one either. Stephenson on the other hand, is quite the opposite. He's a highly controversial player, prone to inexcusable lapses in decision-making. But the Pacers need Stephenson's recklessness. They are not going to make it too far in the playoffs playing conservative basketball. They don't have the talent for that. They need a spark, and Stephenson is a strong defender, electric playmaker and unafraid of the big moments. Will he make awful choices on the court? Yes. But the Pacers are not talented enough to afford to sit him. As for the bigs, Young is a playoff veteran who is the power-forward version of Collison. Turner is an X-factor. The 22-year-old had an overall disappointing season, averaging only 12 points, 6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks when he was expected to be doubling some of those numbers. But he is still a defensive deterrent at the rim, holding enemies to a stifling 48 percent field goal in the paint. If he morphs into a three-point splashing, defensive monster he is capable of being, then the Pacers should be a serious contender in the East.
6. Miami Heat: Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
I don't envy coach Erik Spoelstra's decision of picking a final five out of a pool of pretty identical players. James Johnson, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk and Dwyane Wade all have cases that they should be ending games. But you can't play all ten guys at the same time, so Spoelstra will just have to figure it out. This particular lineup has played together sparingly over the regular season, and they have fared very well. There are countless lineups where Whiteside should not be playing, but the best version of the Heat still involves a fully engaged Whiteside blocking everything in his path, gobbling up rebounds like the cookie monster and adding a post presence to Miami's repetitive roster. The issue is that Whiteside is clearly not always engaged, but a matchup with arch-nemesis Joel Embiid will bring out the best in the moody 27-year-old big man. Surrounding him is a quartet of fast, hard-working and defensively sticky guards. Dragic is a calming presence at point guard and he's experienced. Ellington is money from deep, and he needs little-to-no-space to get off his jump shot. Johnson embodies Heat Culture. He's gritty and can defend multiple positions and his three-point shot is passable. Richardson is secretly the team's best player. Dragic may handle the ball the majority of the game, but in crunch time, Erik Spoelstra has consistently put the rock in Richardson's hands throughout the season. Richardson is a phenomenal defender, and has succeeded his teammate Wade as the best shot-blocking guard in the game. He's going to be consistently playing upwards of 40 minutes this playoffs. His elasticity and bucket-getting ability is perfect for the postseason hothouse.
7. Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Kris Middleton, Tony Snell, Giannis Antetokounmpo
This lineup has played very little minutes so far this season. Is that risky? Hell yes. But news flash--you got to risk it to get the biscuit in the playoffs. This five-man pairing could switch every possession, and offers more spacing as opposed to a lineup in which John Henson is involved. These are the Bucks' five best players and there is potential for a terrifying team that is versatile, lengthy, blazing fast in transition and has enough scorers on offense to survive. A Unicorn like Joel Embiid would definitely push this lineup to its limits, but if I were Joe Prunty I'd put Giannis on Embiid. Oh, the fireworks that matchup would produce. But for a first round face-off with Boston, where Al Horford and Aron Baynes are skilled yet not totally equipped to physically manhandle opponents, this lineup should do just fine.
8. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kelly Oubre, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris
It's pretty difficult to limp into the playoffs with the lifelessness the Wizards have displayed the last couple of weeks; they seem to sincerely hate playing with each other. Marcin Gortat has regressed this season. On the bright side, the Wizards have a potentially devastating lineup they haven't yet unleashed. Satoransky has been a beyond pleasant surprise this season. He's steady with the ball and surprisingly solid on defense. He's one of those guys who can slot into any lineup and be effective, but he's not ready to be ending games just yet. Oubre has been slumping bad lately. Ever since the all-star break he's making only 27 percent of his three-point attempts. Yuck. For the Wizards to make any noise, Oubre will need to find his shot again and use his crazy length to disrupt offenses. As for Markieff Morris, the injury prone power forward has proven to be an effective small-ball center and the Wizards will need his versatility. As for the big three of Beal, Porter and Wall, when those three have shared the court together, they have walloped opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions. Beal and Porter will be just fine, but it's Wall that will truly determine if the Wiz are a first round washout or something better. The 27-year old star point guard has been either injured or ineffective all season, but we've seen what he's capable of, which is stellar two-way play. If Wall overwhelms the older Kyle Lowry and makes fewer mistakes than usual, the Wizards have a chance to advance. This five-man group may be small, but they could be deadly.
WEST
Houston Rockets: Chris Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela
As I alluded at the beginning of this piece, the Rockets have seven legitimate candidates (the five players listen above plus PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute) to finish games. Unfortunately, that number was shaved to six when Mbah a Moute suffered a shoulder injury in the season finale that will sideline him the whole first-round. Paul and Harden should no doubt be playing, as they are the engines of the Rockets' operation. They both roast ill-equipped defenders off the bounce and are excellent facilitators and shooters. Ariza is their classic 3-and-D guy, while Capela is a wonderful rim protector and lob threat. He's also shooting 65 percent from the field, which leads the league. Gordon over Tucker is a luxury pick for D'Antoni. Gordon offers a tad more offense while Tucker is more adept defensively, but the Rockets should end with Gordon because the Wolves do not have the personnel besides Jimmy Butler to contain all of Harden, Paul and Gordon on offense. And by the way, this lineup has played only 24 minutes together this season, so again take this with half a grain of salt, but they outscored opponents by 60 points per 100 possessions. When those minutes are extrapolated over a longer period of time, that number will no doubt water down, but it's very promising. The Rockets are going to be a brutal out this postseason, and when they roll out this lineup, they could be unstoppable.
Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Jordan Bell
Steph Curry being sidelined in the first round is a tough blow to a Warriors team that relies so heavily on his offensive brilliance . When Curry is healthy, the Warriors have their tried-and-true Death Lineup to fall back on in close games. Now, Steve Kerr's coaching chops will be tested more than ever before. The Dubs are clearly not as deep as years past and while Quinn Cook will have a big role this postseason, can he really be trusted to close out games? The Warriors without Curry are not going to be an offensive juggernaut no matter who they play in his place, but they can double down on a strength: defense. When Jordan Bell has shared the court with the rest of the Death Lineup, the Warriors have been absolutely stifling on that end of the floor. It's a big team building concept deployed in football: you would rather have a great defense and terrible offense than a good defense and slightly-better-than-terrible offense. Spacing may get tight with Bell and Iguodala, but the Warriors will be lockdown on defense. And it's not like they will be bereft of talent on offense; Green is one of the best playmaking forwards in the game, Thompson one of the greatest shooters of all time and Durant is...Kevin freaking Durant. The Dubs will be tested without their star point guard, but their length on defense (Green, Durant and Bell all have wingspans greater than 7 feet) will dictate the tempo.
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Evan Turner, Al Faruq-Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic
It's the Blazers most-used lineup, and it has simply done the job, sporting respectable offensive and defensive efficiency numbers en route to outscoring opponents by a tad over seven points per 100 possessions. Turner, who is a playmaker at heart, has proven to be an awkward fit along Portland's star backcourt throughout his time here, but he improved on defense and made his jumper adequate. Aminu is a true Swiss-Army knife on defense and he will probably be assigned with the impossible task of defending Anthony Davis this postseason. On offense, Aminu can knock down the three ball and he's recently grown more comfortable attacking weak close outs with verve. Nurkic is notoriously streaky. Some days he sulks, doesn't try on defense and lofts weak floaters in the lane. But when he's on, he becomes a Bosnian version of Shaq, bulldozing opponents en-route to rampaging slams, walling off the paint on defense and accurately passing out of the pick-and-roll to the open shooter. Lillard and McCollum can be counted on for 55-plus combined points and the Blazers are surprisingly stout defensively when the two share the court. Dame has reached the next level this season. He's in complete control of himself and the team, and he's also massively improved on defense. Last year, the Blazers conceded 108 points per 100 possessions on defense last season when Dame was on the court. This year however, that number has improved to 103. While the Blazers are the third seed, they probably can't make the Conference Finals. They are too thin on high-level talent. This lineup should give them their best crack at getting there though.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook, Alex Abrines, Paul George, Jerami Grant, Steven Adams
I know what you may be thinking: Sure Melo has had a down year, but he doesn't even end the game? Well, nope. Melo has been a shell of himself all season. He's never been a great defender, but this year has been particularly cruel watching opponents so openly seek him out. This stat tells you all you need to know:
Westbrook, George, Grant, Adams PLUS Melo: +0.9 net rating
Westbrook, George, Grant, Adams PLUS Abrines: +33 net rating
While Abrines is by no means a lockdown defender, he is much more competent than Melo and he also spreads the floor with his beautiful three-point stroke while Melo has shot a league average 35.7 percent from deep. It's important to remember that Melo is still a better player than Abrines, but Abrines fits in much more seamlessly with this lineup due to his willingness to diligently spot up and not highjack possessions by chunking up inefficient contested mid-range fade-aways. As for the rest of the five-man grouping, Westbrook, George and Adams are OKC's true big three, all studs on both ends of the court. Grant would not be here if this were last year. In the previous postseason, he was recklessly charging to the rim and clanking the ball off the backboard. Now, he's recklessly charging to the rim and actually getting buckets. Grant would be on my most improved players list since he's smoothened his jump-shot's release and become a beast on the offensive glass. He's also an excellent rim-runner, where he is in the 81st percentile as the roll-man in a pick-and-roll. This lineup has all the goods: four high level defenders (minus Abrines), four respectable shooters (minus Adams) and two elite penetrators and scorers in Westbrook and George. This lineup could beat anyone in the league, and it should crush the Jazz when called upon.
Utah Jazz: Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Joel Ingles, Jae Crowder, Rudy Gobert
Before I dive into how insanely good this lineup has been, let's take a moment to appreciate just how insanely good Donovan Mitchell has been this season. The rookie is leading a playoff team in scoring (20.5 points per game), which has happened only four other times in NBA history. Mitchell's ferocious style of play is reminiscent of a young Dwyane Wade. He's got a killer crossover, smooth jumper and advanced finishing skills. The Jazz will be relevant for the next 10 years because of him. As for this ridiculous lineup, which has a steady 194 minutes under its belt, there has been no stopping it. When Jae Crowder steps in for Derrick Favors, the Jazz sport the best offense in the league and the best defense by a country mile. It all evens out to the Jazz walloping opponents by 27 points per 100 possessions. While Crowder is too slow to play small forward anymore, he's the perfect bulky and stretchy power forward. Gobert is the captain of the defense, and while Mitchell is spectacular, Gobert is quietly the team's most important player. Anytime he's on the court, the Jazz are virtually guaranteed to have a top three defense. Rubio has enjoyed a career year. Finally free of Thom Thibodeu's grasp, the 27-year-old passing whiz has been given much more offensive freedom. Rubio conducts himself with much more conviction nowadays. When defenders go under picks, Rubio has no qualms about splashing wide open three. He's as crafty as ever once he penetrates the lane. Lastly, Ingles has simply been fantastic. He's a stout defender, amazing three point shooter (44 percent) and wily passer. Ingles is also tough as nails. Those five players individually all have their flaws, but when they play together, they make magic happen.
New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, E'Twaun Moore, Nikola Mirotic, Anthony Davis
Do you believe in the Ewing Theory? It's a theory popularized by how the New York Knicks improved after their star player went down with an injury. The theory holds that some teams are simply better without their star player. In the Pelicans' case, their previous lineup with Boogie was outscored by 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Substitute Mirotic in for Cousins, and the Pelicans are slaughtering teams by 16.8 points per 100 possessions. Boogie's bully-ball style of play and playmaking chops are valuable, but oddly, that has not been reflected on the stat sheet. Mirotic gives the Pelicans' offense room to breath. Opponents respect his jump shot and he's improved as a slasher and is just bulky enough to give Davis some assistance when battling brutes in the paint. Rondo has been surprisingly effective this year, averaging an impressive 8.2 assists per game and converting juuust enough of his shots from deep that opponents can't completely ignore him. Moore has been a flamethrower from deep, making 42.5 percent of his three-pointers and providing tenacious perimeter defense. He may be undersized but he's the perfect role player. Lastly, Holiday and Davis have brought their games to the next level. Holiday is supremely underrated. He's probably the best defensive point guard in the league. When Holiday is on the court, the Pelicans sport a top-five defense in the league. When he rests, the Pelicans can't defend a lick, giving up a league-worst 112 points per 100 possessions. But pigeonholing Holiday as an effective defender is selling him short. What used to be a passive and undisciplined point general is now a full-fledged beast. Holiday is averaging 19 points, 6 assists and 1.5 steals and he's finally enjoyed a clean bill of health. He's also a sledgehammer in the post, scoring 1.12 points per possession when posting up, which is in the 94th percentile of all post-up players. Damian Lillard is going to have his hands full with the well-rounded Holiday. As for Davis, he has evolved into a top three NBA player. Davis is putting up 28 points, 11 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 1.5 steals in what has been a masterful campaign. He's the anchor of the defense, and is also mobile enough to shut down players on the perimeter. On offense, nobody is stopping him. He has the ball-handling skills of a point guard but the strength and size of a big. The Pelicans are being slept on since the average fan only knows the name "Anthony Davis", but this team has become so much more.
San Antonio Spurs: DeJounte Murray, Manu Ginobili, Danny Greem, Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge
Picking a final five is going to be harder than finding Waldo in the game "Where's Waldo." The Spurs have six probable candidates to surround Aldridge, their clear star: Murray, Green, Anderson, Ginobili, Mills and Gay. Gay has been a valuable microwave scorer, and the Spurs need all the scoring they can get. Murray should be in there. He may be only 21-years-old, but along with Frank Ntilikina and Holiday, he's the best point guard defender in the league as well as a phenomenal rebounder for the position. Anderson has been steady all season. He's quietly a great defender despite his overall slowness, and he's a smart playmaker and quirky finisher who can splash threes when open, but he ideally should not be ending games. Ginobili has to be playing in the end. Even at 40, he's still the Spurs best and most reliable playmaker and penetrator, which is kind of sad but also a testament to how Ginobili is still unstoppable when going to his left. Mills is a veteran shooter and reliable playmaker, but Green's defensive versatility and capable shooting should win out. The Spurs are being slept on due to their talent drain, but never underestimate coach Gregg Popovich's ability to cook up some magic. Also, LaMarcus Aldridge is pretty damn good. He's in the 80th percentile as a post-scorer and he turns it over at the lowest rate in the league. Amid Kawhi Leonard's mysterious absence, Aldridge has registered an impressive campaign, putting up 23 points, 8 rebounds and stellar interior defense. He's going to be a force to be reckoned with, especially since he's out for revenge after a disappointing postseason last year. Even without Steph Curry, the Warriors are billed as clear favorites, but never count out the Spurs.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Karl Towns
It's so predictable that the most used lineup in the league this season (1131 minutes) is coached by Tom Thibodeau. But hey, they've been effective, scoring and defending at top 10 rates, beating opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions in the process. Teague is the epitome of a solid, league-average point guard. He has explosive scoring bursts followed by general spans of ineffectiveness. His small frame will never allow him to be a sturdy defender. Wiggins is one of the most polarizing players in the league. Still only 23-years-old, there's no doubting his offensive talent. Unfortunately he does almost nothing else to effect the game. He's by no means a three-point marksman, and his assist and rebound numbers are comically low for a wing. Gibson has been a revelation. He's one of the best defenders in the league, and can guard in space as well. The 32-year-old vet is invaluable to the Wolves' identity and culture and he always shows up for big games. Towns and Butler are the undisputed alpha dogs. Thibs is going to play both of them like 48 minutes every playoff game, and they may have nothing left down the stretch. Those minutes add up, and Minnesota has the worst point differential in 4th quarters among all Western Conference playoff squads. Butler has the large task of checking presumptive MVP James Harden as well as carrying his team on offense. Towns is an efficient monster on offense. He's in the 86th percentile as a post up player, and 95th (!!!) percentile as a spot-up shooter. He has no weaknesses on offense, well, except he doesn't get the ball enough. The Wolves finally reached the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, which is a massive accomplishment and burden lifted on the team and city. Unfortunately, it may be short lived.
If that sounded intense, crunch time in an NBA playoff game is in a whole other galaxy of pressure. Seasons, contracts, money, jobs and legacies are all on the line, out in the open. It's a place where players and teams either realize they can take their game to a higher level (Damian Lillard in 2015), or get their hopes crushed and be endlessly ridiculed as a choker (The 2012-2017 Clippers).
It is not always in a team's best interest to play their best lineups too much in the regular season. The Warriors' feared Death Lineup has only played a total of 127 minutes this season. This is because asking Kevin Durant and Draymond Green to battle with behemoths down low takes an enormous toll on their bodies, so it should only be deployed when absolutely necessary.
Another reason not to play your best lineup too often is for fear of another team over-scouting that specific lineup, which loses it's edge if teams have enough game film to prepare for it. Again, the Warriors almost never ran a Steph Curry-Kevin Durant pick-and-roll last season, even though it was quite possibly the deadliest play in basketball. But coach Steve Kerr only unleashed the lethal play in the Finals, and the Cavs had no answer, and minimal game film to study from.
But back to crunch time. Everything is on the line. There is nothing left to be waiting for. It's imperative a team rolls out it's best lineup. For some teams, it is not quite clear which specific five-man pairing is the best. Does it REALLY matter if you surround James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza with PJ Tucker as opposed to Luc Mbah a Moute? Well, here are the groupings I would play if I were coach of each playoff team.
EAST
Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, DeMar DeRozan, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valinciunas
The Raptors are one of those teams that is so deep that it may be a disadvantage come playoff time, where having solid depth is helpful yet not as essential since teams can play their best players more minutes due to the rest in between playoff games. This five-man grouping has blitzed opponents is over 100 minutes together this season, outscoring them by a ridiculous 25 points per 100 possessions. Lowry and DeRozan will no doubt be on the court, and while this time last year Valinciunas would probably be sulking on the bench, he has completely transformed his game and bought into what coach Dwayne Casey is preaching. Valinciunas is a beast in the post, where he ranks in the 95th percentile in efficiency. Ibaka may have lost about 30% of his athleticism from his Thunder days, but he can still knock down threes and serve as a versatile perimeter and interior defender. He's also massively experienced, which is an intangible hard to quantify but extremely valuable in the postseason hothouse. And lastly, VanVleet has developed into a gritty, hard-nosed player who has led the Raptors' league-best bench and has connected on a knockdown 41 percent of his three-point attempts.
Boston Celtics: Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Al Horford
This lineup has only played together for 19 minutes this season, so while its plus-18 net rating should be taken with a grain of salt, it is also a juicy taste-test of this group's potential. When the Celtics get healthy next year, this group will probably swap out Rozier and Morris for Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving, a minor upgrade. But the Celtics must first deal with the present, where they have been severely depleted by injuries, but will still be a dangerous playoff team due to having home court advantage, the best coach in the league, and a smart, disciplined group of players. Rozier has significantly improved from last season. He's filled in for Kyrie Irving admirably with his relentless, pesky defense and explosive, sometimes-out-of-control approach on offense. Brown and Tatum are very green (pun-intended) and no matter what happens, this will be an invaluable learning experience for the two Jay's. Brown should assume lead scoring responsibilities while the 20-year-old Tatum will be expected to pour in 20 points a game. Morris may be erratic and shoot too many low-efficiency, contested midrange jumpers, but he is no doubt clutch and his microwave scoring will be needed. Horford is the team's best remaining player even though he only averages less than 13 points a game. But he's an excellent screener, facilitator and perfect positional and team defender. Horford will need to stretch himself offensively if the Celtics have any hope of making true noise in the playoffs.
Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, JJ Redick, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
Assuming Embiid makes it back in time for playoff action, this grouping is pretty simple, since it sports the best net rating of any lineup that has played more than 300 minutes together. Space can get a tad too tight if Saric is not knocking down threes since Embiid is usually parked in the post while Simmons is well-known to be allergic to outside jumpers. But when everything is clicking (and it usually is) this lineup is a sight to behold. Ben Simmons in transition is like the terminator. He's either going to dunk on you or flick a slick pass to a wide-open teammate. JJ Redick never stops running, and he's made a scorching 46 percent of his three-point attempts since the beginning of March. Covington is the Vitruvian Man on defense, where he is top three in deflections. And lastly, Embiid, who has lived up to even the loftiest expectations. The only weakness in his game is his lackluster three-point percentage (30 percent) but even in that department he has a fine stroke and is still considered a shooting threat by defenses. The 76ers are the only team that has even a remote chance of knocking the King off his throne this postseason.
Cleveland Cavaliers: George Hill, Kyle Korver, LeBron James, Jeff Green, Kevin Love
When that group minus George Hill shares the floor, they roast teams to the scintillating tune of over 16 points per 100 possessions, sporting a blistering 123 offensive rating. Hill is probably the best option to complement that surprisingly-dominant quartet. He may not be the sticky defender he once was, but he's still competent and that's more than the Cavs could ever ask for. His 35 percent from three is acceptable, but that bumps up to 47 percent from the corners, an area where LeBron is particularly adept at finding players. Love is a great complement to LeBron. He spreads the floor, passes well and rebounds like a maniac. Green (at 31-years-old) has somehow just now had his breakout season we all expected five years ago. He's transformed himself into the perfect LeBron ally--a versatile defender and adequate three-point shooter who can also get buckets when the offense stalls. Korver may be squishy on defense, but he's always in the right spot and he's the best three-point shooter in the league. And lastly, LeBron. There is not much more to be said. At 33-years-old, he's still as dominant as ever. Double-team him, and he will rocket a bullet to an open shooter. Play man on him, and he will bully you into the stanchion. The King just submitted another 27-8-9 campaign and nobody bats an eye, because he's done basically the same thing the last ten years. He's remarkable. Never take him for granted.
Indiana Pacers: Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner
The Pacers are one of the NBA's best success stories. Expected to be a bottom-dweller, they exploded to 48 wins. They also are one of those teams that does not have a clear best ending lineup. Sure, Victor Oladipo, who has blossomed into a superstar and averaged 23 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.4 steals, should be out on the court. But after him? Everything is up for grabs. The above lineup has only played 45 minutes together all season and they have obliterated teams by 35 points per 100 possessions behind stellar offense and defense. Collison is solid if not spectacular, and he is a calming presence who does not make many mistakes. He won't win you a game, but he won't lose you one either. Stephenson on the other hand, is quite the opposite. He's a highly controversial player, prone to inexcusable lapses in decision-making. But the Pacers need Stephenson's recklessness. They are not going to make it too far in the playoffs playing conservative basketball. They don't have the talent for that. They need a spark, and Stephenson is a strong defender, electric playmaker and unafraid of the big moments. Will he make awful choices on the court? Yes. But the Pacers are not talented enough to afford to sit him. As for the bigs, Young is a playoff veteran who is the power-forward version of Collison. Turner is an X-factor. The 22-year-old had an overall disappointing season, averaging only 12 points, 6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks when he was expected to be doubling some of those numbers. But he is still a defensive deterrent at the rim, holding enemies to a stifling 48 percent field goal in the paint. If he morphs into a three-point splashing, defensive monster he is capable of being, then the Pacers should be a serious contender in the East.
6. Miami Heat: Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
I don't envy coach Erik Spoelstra's decision of picking a final five out of a pool of pretty identical players. James Johnson, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk and Dwyane Wade all have cases that they should be ending games. But you can't play all ten guys at the same time, so Spoelstra will just have to figure it out. This particular lineup has played together sparingly over the regular season, and they have fared very well. There are countless lineups where Whiteside should not be playing, but the best version of the Heat still involves a fully engaged Whiteside blocking everything in his path, gobbling up rebounds like the cookie monster and adding a post presence to Miami's repetitive roster. The issue is that Whiteside is clearly not always engaged, but a matchup with arch-nemesis Joel Embiid will bring out the best in the moody 27-year-old big man. Surrounding him is a quartet of fast, hard-working and defensively sticky guards. Dragic is a calming presence at point guard and he's experienced. Ellington is money from deep, and he needs little-to-no-space to get off his jump shot. Johnson embodies Heat Culture. He's gritty and can defend multiple positions and his three-point shot is passable. Richardson is secretly the team's best player. Dragic may handle the ball the majority of the game, but in crunch time, Erik Spoelstra has consistently put the rock in Richardson's hands throughout the season. Richardson is a phenomenal defender, and has succeeded his teammate Wade as the best shot-blocking guard in the game. He's going to be consistently playing upwards of 40 minutes this playoffs. His elasticity and bucket-getting ability is perfect for the postseason hothouse.
7. Milwaukee Bucks: Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Kris Middleton, Tony Snell, Giannis Antetokounmpo
This lineup has played very little minutes so far this season. Is that risky? Hell yes. But news flash--you got to risk it to get the biscuit in the playoffs. This five-man pairing could switch every possession, and offers more spacing as opposed to a lineup in which John Henson is involved. These are the Bucks' five best players and there is potential for a terrifying team that is versatile, lengthy, blazing fast in transition and has enough scorers on offense to survive. A Unicorn like Joel Embiid would definitely push this lineup to its limits, but if I were Joe Prunty I'd put Giannis on Embiid. Oh, the fireworks that matchup would produce. But for a first round face-off with Boston, where Al Horford and Aron Baynes are skilled yet not totally equipped to physically manhandle opponents, this lineup should do just fine.
8. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Kelly Oubre, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris
It's pretty difficult to limp into the playoffs with the lifelessness the Wizards have displayed the last couple of weeks; they seem to sincerely hate playing with each other. Marcin Gortat has regressed this season. On the bright side, the Wizards have a potentially devastating lineup they haven't yet unleashed. Satoransky has been a beyond pleasant surprise this season. He's steady with the ball and surprisingly solid on defense. He's one of those guys who can slot into any lineup and be effective, but he's not ready to be ending games just yet. Oubre has been slumping bad lately. Ever since the all-star break he's making only 27 percent of his three-point attempts. Yuck. For the Wizards to make any noise, Oubre will need to find his shot again and use his crazy length to disrupt offenses. As for Markieff Morris, the injury prone power forward has proven to be an effective small-ball center and the Wizards will need his versatility. As for the big three of Beal, Porter and Wall, when those three have shared the court together, they have walloped opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions. Beal and Porter will be just fine, but it's Wall that will truly determine if the Wiz are a first round washout or something better. The 27-year old star point guard has been either injured or ineffective all season, but we've seen what he's capable of, which is stellar two-way play. If Wall overwhelms the older Kyle Lowry and makes fewer mistakes than usual, the Wizards have a chance to advance. This five-man group may be small, but they could be deadly.
WEST
Houston Rockets: Chris Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela
As I alluded at the beginning of this piece, the Rockets have seven legitimate candidates (the five players listen above plus PJ Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute) to finish games. Unfortunately, that number was shaved to six when Mbah a Moute suffered a shoulder injury in the season finale that will sideline him the whole first-round. Paul and Harden should no doubt be playing, as they are the engines of the Rockets' operation. They both roast ill-equipped defenders off the bounce and are excellent facilitators and shooters. Ariza is their classic 3-and-D guy, while Capela is a wonderful rim protector and lob threat. He's also shooting 65 percent from the field, which leads the league. Gordon over Tucker is a luxury pick for D'Antoni. Gordon offers a tad more offense while Tucker is more adept defensively, but the Rockets should end with Gordon because the Wolves do not have the personnel besides Jimmy Butler to contain all of Harden, Paul and Gordon on offense. And by the way, this lineup has played only 24 minutes together this season, so again take this with half a grain of salt, but they outscored opponents by 60 points per 100 possessions. When those minutes are extrapolated over a longer period of time, that number will no doubt water down, but it's very promising. The Rockets are going to be a brutal out this postseason, and when they roll out this lineup, they could be unstoppable.
Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Jordan Bell
Steph Curry being sidelined in the first round is a tough blow to a Warriors team that relies so heavily on his offensive brilliance . When Curry is healthy, the Warriors have their tried-and-true Death Lineup to fall back on in close games. Now, Steve Kerr's coaching chops will be tested more than ever before. The Dubs are clearly not as deep as years past and while Quinn Cook will have a big role this postseason, can he really be trusted to close out games? The Warriors without Curry are not going to be an offensive juggernaut no matter who they play in his place, but they can double down on a strength: defense. When Jordan Bell has shared the court with the rest of the Death Lineup, the Warriors have been absolutely stifling on that end of the floor. It's a big team building concept deployed in football: you would rather have a great defense and terrible offense than a good defense and slightly-better-than-terrible offense. Spacing may get tight with Bell and Iguodala, but the Warriors will be lockdown on defense. And it's not like they will be bereft of talent on offense; Green is one of the best playmaking forwards in the game, Thompson one of the greatest shooters of all time and Durant is...Kevin freaking Durant. The Dubs will be tested without their star point guard, but their length on defense (Green, Durant and Bell all have wingspans greater than 7 feet) will dictate the tempo.
Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Evan Turner, Al Faruq-Aminu, Jusuf Nurkic
It's the Blazers most-used lineup, and it has simply done the job, sporting respectable offensive and defensive efficiency numbers en route to outscoring opponents by a tad over seven points per 100 possessions. Turner, who is a playmaker at heart, has proven to be an awkward fit along Portland's star backcourt throughout his time here, but he improved on defense and made his jumper adequate. Aminu is a true Swiss-Army knife on defense and he will probably be assigned with the impossible task of defending Anthony Davis this postseason. On offense, Aminu can knock down the three ball and he's recently grown more comfortable attacking weak close outs with verve. Nurkic is notoriously streaky. Some days he sulks, doesn't try on defense and lofts weak floaters in the lane. But when he's on, he becomes a Bosnian version of Shaq, bulldozing opponents en-route to rampaging slams, walling off the paint on defense and accurately passing out of the pick-and-roll to the open shooter. Lillard and McCollum can be counted on for 55-plus combined points and the Blazers are surprisingly stout defensively when the two share the court. Dame has reached the next level this season. He's in complete control of himself and the team, and he's also massively improved on defense. Last year, the Blazers conceded 108 points per 100 possessions on defense last season when Dame was on the court. This year however, that number has improved to 103. While the Blazers are the third seed, they probably can't make the Conference Finals. They are too thin on high-level talent. This lineup should give them their best crack at getting there though.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook, Alex Abrines, Paul George, Jerami Grant, Steven Adams
I know what you may be thinking: Sure Melo has had a down year, but he doesn't even end the game? Well, nope. Melo has been a shell of himself all season. He's never been a great defender, but this year has been particularly cruel watching opponents so openly seek him out. This stat tells you all you need to know:
Westbrook, George, Grant, Adams PLUS Melo: +0.9 net rating
Westbrook, George, Grant, Adams PLUS Abrines: +33 net rating
While Abrines is by no means a lockdown defender, he is much more competent than Melo and he also spreads the floor with his beautiful three-point stroke while Melo has shot a league average 35.7 percent from deep. It's important to remember that Melo is still a better player than Abrines, but Abrines fits in much more seamlessly with this lineup due to his willingness to diligently spot up and not highjack possessions by chunking up inefficient contested mid-range fade-aways. As for the rest of the five-man grouping, Westbrook, George and Adams are OKC's true big three, all studs on both ends of the court. Grant would not be here if this were last year. In the previous postseason, he was recklessly charging to the rim and clanking the ball off the backboard. Now, he's recklessly charging to the rim and actually getting buckets. Grant would be on my most improved players list since he's smoothened his jump-shot's release and become a beast on the offensive glass. He's also an excellent rim-runner, where he is in the 81st percentile as the roll-man in a pick-and-roll. This lineup has all the goods: four high level defenders (minus Abrines), four respectable shooters (minus Adams) and two elite penetrators and scorers in Westbrook and George. This lineup could beat anyone in the league, and it should crush the Jazz when called upon.
Utah Jazz: Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell, Joel Ingles, Jae Crowder, Rudy Gobert
Before I dive into how insanely good this lineup has been, let's take a moment to appreciate just how insanely good Donovan Mitchell has been this season. The rookie is leading a playoff team in scoring (20.5 points per game), which has happened only four other times in NBA history. Mitchell's ferocious style of play is reminiscent of a young Dwyane Wade. He's got a killer crossover, smooth jumper and advanced finishing skills. The Jazz will be relevant for the next 10 years because of him. As for this ridiculous lineup, which has a steady 194 minutes under its belt, there has been no stopping it. When Jae Crowder steps in for Derrick Favors, the Jazz sport the best offense in the league and the best defense by a country mile. It all evens out to the Jazz walloping opponents by 27 points per 100 possessions. While Crowder is too slow to play small forward anymore, he's the perfect bulky and stretchy power forward. Gobert is the captain of the defense, and while Mitchell is spectacular, Gobert is quietly the team's most important player. Anytime he's on the court, the Jazz are virtually guaranteed to have a top three defense. Rubio has enjoyed a career year. Finally free of Thom Thibodeu's grasp, the 27-year-old passing whiz has been given much more offensive freedom. Rubio conducts himself with much more conviction nowadays. When defenders go under picks, Rubio has no qualms about splashing wide open three. He's as crafty as ever once he penetrates the lane. Lastly, Ingles has simply been fantastic. He's a stout defender, amazing three point shooter (44 percent) and wily passer. Ingles is also tough as nails. Those five players individually all have their flaws, but when they play together, they make magic happen.
New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo, E'Twaun Moore, Nikola Mirotic, Anthony Davis
Do you believe in the Ewing Theory? It's a theory popularized by how the New York Knicks improved after their star player went down with an injury. The theory holds that some teams are simply better without their star player. In the Pelicans' case, their previous lineup with Boogie was outscored by 2.9 points per 100 possessions. Substitute Mirotic in for Cousins, and the Pelicans are slaughtering teams by 16.8 points per 100 possessions. Boogie's bully-ball style of play and playmaking chops are valuable, but oddly, that has not been reflected on the stat sheet. Mirotic gives the Pelicans' offense room to breath. Opponents respect his jump shot and he's improved as a slasher and is just bulky enough to give Davis some assistance when battling brutes in the paint. Rondo has been surprisingly effective this year, averaging an impressive 8.2 assists per game and converting juuust enough of his shots from deep that opponents can't completely ignore him. Moore has been a flamethrower from deep, making 42.5 percent of his three-pointers and providing tenacious perimeter defense. He may be undersized but he's the perfect role player. Lastly, Holiday and Davis have brought their games to the next level. Holiday is supremely underrated. He's probably the best defensive point guard in the league. When Holiday is on the court, the Pelicans sport a top-five defense in the league. When he rests, the Pelicans can't defend a lick, giving up a league-worst 112 points per 100 possessions. But pigeonholing Holiday as an effective defender is selling him short. What used to be a passive and undisciplined point general is now a full-fledged beast. Holiday is averaging 19 points, 6 assists and 1.5 steals and he's finally enjoyed a clean bill of health. He's also a sledgehammer in the post, scoring 1.12 points per possession when posting up, which is in the 94th percentile of all post-up players. Damian Lillard is going to have his hands full with the well-rounded Holiday. As for Davis, he has evolved into a top three NBA player. Davis is putting up 28 points, 11 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 1.5 steals in what has been a masterful campaign. He's the anchor of the defense, and is also mobile enough to shut down players on the perimeter. On offense, nobody is stopping him. He has the ball-handling skills of a point guard but the strength and size of a big. The Pelicans are being slept on since the average fan only knows the name "Anthony Davis", but this team has become so much more.
San Antonio Spurs: DeJounte Murray, Manu Ginobili, Danny Greem, Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge
Picking a final five is going to be harder than finding Waldo in the game "Where's Waldo." The Spurs have six probable candidates to surround Aldridge, their clear star: Murray, Green, Anderson, Ginobili, Mills and Gay. Gay has been a valuable microwave scorer, and the Spurs need all the scoring they can get. Murray should be in there. He may be only 21-years-old, but along with Frank Ntilikina and Holiday, he's the best point guard defender in the league as well as a phenomenal rebounder for the position. Anderson has been steady all season. He's quietly a great defender despite his overall slowness, and he's a smart playmaker and quirky finisher who can splash threes when open, but he ideally should not be ending games. Ginobili has to be playing in the end. Even at 40, he's still the Spurs best and most reliable playmaker and penetrator, which is kind of sad but also a testament to how Ginobili is still unstoppable when going to his left. Mills is a veteran shooter and reliable playmaker, but Green's defensive versatility and capable shooting should win out. The Spurs are being slept on due to their talent drain, but never underestimate coach Gregg Popovich's ability to cook up some magic. Also, LaMarcus Aldridge is pretty damn good. He's in the 80th percentile as a post-scorer and he turns it over at the lowest rate in the league. Amid Kawhi Leonard's mysterious absence, Aldridge has registered an impressive campaign, putting up 23 points, 8 rebounds and stellar interior defense. He's going to be a force to be reckoned with, especially since he's out for revenge after a disappointing postseason last year. Even without Steph Curry, the Warriors are billed as clear favorites, but never count out the Spurs.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Karl Towns
It's so predictable that the most used lineup in the league this season (1131 minutes) is coached by Tom Thibodeau. But hey, they've been effective, scoring and defending at top 10 rates, beating opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions in the process. Teague is the epitome of a solid, league-average point guard. He has explosive scoring bursts followed by general spans of ineffectiveness. His small frame will never allow him to be a sturdy defender. Wiggins is one of the most polarizing players in the league. Still only 23-years-old, there's no doubting his offensive talent. Unfortunately he does almost nothing else to effect the game. He's by no means a three-point marksman, and his assist and rebound numbers are comically low for a wing. Gibson has been a revelation. He's one of the best defenders in the league, and can guard in space as well. The 32-year-old vet is invaluable to the Wolves' identity and culture and he always shows up for big games. Towns and Butler are the undisputed alpha dogs. Thibs is going to play both of them like 48 minutes every playoff game, and they may have nothing left down the stretch. Those minutes add up, and Minnesota has the worst point differential in 4th quarters among all Western Conference playoff squads. Butler has the large task of checking presumptive MVP James Harden as well as carrying his team on offense. Towns is an efficient monster on offense. He's in the 86th percentile as a post up player, and 95th (!!!) percentile as a spot-up shooter. He has no weaknesses on offense, well, except he doesn't get the ball enough. The Wolves finally reached the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, which is a massive accomplishment and burden lifted on the team and city. Unfortunately, it may be short lived.
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