10 Breakout Players for the 2019-20 season
We had an upside down rollercoaster ride of an offseason, with high-wattage stars such as (deep breath) Anthony Davis, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, Kemba Walker, Mike Conley, Al Horford, D'Angelo Russell and...Mike Muscala change teams.
For the first time in what feels like decades, the race for the championship is wide-open, which sets us up for what should be an explosive and massively entertaining NBA season.
With that said, every season offers an opportunity for young players to breakout into a more refined version of themselves. Last season we saw Pascal Siakam morph from a bouncy, lengthy spark plug to full blown beast and second best player on a championship team. We glimpsed Spencer Dinwiddie grow from just-another-bench-guard to possibly the best backup in the league after the Lou Will-Montrezl Harrell mind-meld in LA. We witnessed De'Aaron Fox blossom into a star as he steered the perennially-disappointing Kings into the league's most exciting team that nobody watched because they were always on at 10:30 EST.
We all hear the cliches every year. The names change, but the soundbites never do.
"He's in the best shape of his life."
"He never left the gym."
"He's poised to breakout."
"He perfected his shooting form."
You get the point. Players, trainers, agents and coaches inundate us with unsubstantiated hype because...well, what the heck else are they gonna say? That their players regressed and look horrible?
No, coaches are not saying that stuff. Well, except Nick Nurse, who just won the damn championship and can say whatever he pleases.
Thanks for bringing us back to reality Nick. Let's get to ten players I believe will break out this season.
1. Jaren Jackson Jr
Ah yes, very bold of me to predict last year's No. 4 overall pick will improve in his second season. But there's no denying Jackson's talent, and many executives still believe he has the most long-term upside in his draft class due to his ability to splash 3-pointers, defend the rim and score from all areas of the floor. He was the only rookie last season to average at least 19 points, 1.9 blocks, 50 FG% and 76 FT% per 36 minutes. He's on track to join the elite tier of unicorn big men and is going to be fed as many touches as he can handle. Playing with electric rookie point guard Ja Morant and a bruiser in Jonas Valanciunas who can handle behemoths down low, Jackson is in a perfect environment to nurture his rare talent. Also, check out his move he pulled on Steven Adams this preseason.
2. Bam Adebayo
Adebayo has either been stuck behind or splitting minutes with the notoriously lethargic Hassan Whiteside over his first two seasons. It's been pretty depressing to see Bam inject so much athleticism, effort and efficiency into the Heat lineups only to have Whiteside sucking all the air out of the room to attempt his disastrously inefficient post-ups. Bam isn't your typical rim-runner. He had a respectable 14.6 assist percentage, which make him look like prime Rajon Rondo next to Whiteside's putrid 5.4 assist percentage. In limited time this pre-season, Adebayo has been a maven, gobbling up rebounds, blocking everything in sight and scoring efficiently on a low usage like he always does. With Whiteside shipped off to Portland, Adebayo is about to spread his wings.
3. Zach LaVine
Even though he's still only a baby at 24-years-old, LaVine has already developed a reputation as an empty calories gunner on porous teams. And while he has lived up to that so far, I think he's poised to become the face of the Bulls. Over his last 18 games of the 2018-19 season, LaVine was scoring at an uber-efficient 50 FG% while pouring in a clean 25 points per game. In the preseason, he's continued his efficiency spree and is looking like a bona-fide scoring stud. Now over a year removed from ACL surgery that never seemed to zap his athleticism, LaVine is ready to lead a young and hungry Bulls group to the playoffs (in the dreaded East, of course.)
4. Justise Winslow
Entering year five, Winslow has been simply solid. Not spectacular, but nowhere near a bust. He was a tank last season, and really flourished when given the keys to the offense. Part of the reason that Winslow has not broken out yet is because we all thought he was a prototypical wing, but in reality he's a supersized point guard. With Goran Tragic (this was initially a typo, but I thought I'd keep it) another year toward retirement, coach Erik Spoelstra has empowered Winslow to take control. The Duke product is still only 23-years old, and he doubled his assists from 2.2 to 4.4 last season. And for someone labeled a broken shooter, he's quietly shot an excellent 37.5% from deep over the past two seasons. He's also a multi-positional fiend on defense, and the Heat had a superb 104.2 defensive rating when he was on the court, which would rank first in the league. Even though it's a teeny tiny sample size, Winslow has upped his assist average to 6.6 per game this preseason. He's incredibly hard-working and was draining dozens of threes in a row in the gym this summer. Look at this beautiful thread-the-needle pass he unleashed this preseason. After helping work him out this summer, I'm convinced we are about to witness the best Justise Winslow season yet. Am I biased? Yes. Am I right? Also, yes.
5. Kevin Huerter
Huerter has all the makings of a successful NBA wing. He's got a silky shooting stroke and was one of only five rookies last season to convert over 38% of his downtown attempts. He was much more feisty on defense than I had anticipated, and he's pretty tall for a two-guard at 6'7, which helped him see over defenses. He also displayed advanced passing acumen for a player his age. Players at Huerter's position who can shoot, pass and defend like he can are always going to be coveted. This season, the new-age Red Mamba (RIP Brian Scalabrine) will show us that he's built for this.
6. Malcolm Brogdon
Brogdon is never going to garner as much attention as other more exciting and high-flying players, but he's one of the most competent players in the association. After three seasons playing second fiddle to the Greek Freak and Khris Middleton, Brogdon is set to be The Man for the Pacers this season until Victor Oladipo returns from his quad injury. While we have never seen Brogdon in such a ball-dominant role since his Virginia days, it's easy to project his skills onto more volume. Last season, he was the only player in the entire freaking league join the exclusive 50-40-90 club. Brogdon was an excellent straight-line driver against scrambling defenses attempting to recover a Giannis attack. The Bucks outscored opponents by over 10 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court. He will never be flashy, but the man who one front office executive memorably said "he's the kind of guy you want your daughter dating" is going to have his best season to date.
7. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Any rookie who starts for a playoff team that beat the Warriors twice in one series is probably going to have a great career. I don't have stats to back that up, but allow me to pontificate. Shai was one of the most reliable rookies last season who earned a spot in notoriously rookie-allergic Doc Rivers' rotation notably because of his defense. Now with the Thunder after being traded for Paul George, Gilgeous-Alexander will receive much more scoring responsibility than ever before. At 6'6 with tentacles for arms, Shai is everywhere at once. He can guard three positions and enters a team that will heap a lot of responsibility on his shoulders. He's ready to be the face of the Thunder organization for the foreseeable future alongside their approximately 35 million future first round picks.
8. Jonathan Issac
Issac has underwhelmed in his first two seasons, but we saw some promising sparks against the Raptors in the first round. Issac was a fantastic defender, forming a frightening, bouncy duo alongside Aaron Gordon. This prognostication is admittedly a massive bet on Issac's tantalizing physical profile and a supposedly improved jump shot. (Did I just fall into the cliche trap I mentioned at the beginning of this column? I think so. Oh well.)
9. Anfernee Simons
The baby-faced Simons' inclusion on this list is almost entirely based on his summer league performance, where he went scorched earth, dropping 30 points consistently and looking virtually unstoppable. We all know how wise it is to use summer league as a predicator for future production, but he looked so smooth, so sure of himself and displayed a nasty handle that I couldn't help but buy in. And speaking of impressive performances in low-pressure environments, Simons exploded for 37 points in the regular season finale when the Blazers rested practically their entire team. Simons is only 20-years-old and he's got a slight frame. He also plays behind two stars in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, so his playing time will be lower than some of the other players who grace this list. All I'm saying is don't be surprised when you see a highlight of Simons crossing some poor defender off the floor and splashing threes in defender's faces.
10. OG Anunoby
Somebody has to soak up all the minutes Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green left behind when they bolted to Los Angeles. Sure, Pascal Siakam is poised to inherit even more scoring responsibilities, but the Raptors are going to have plenty of opportunities available. People have short memories, but it wasn't too long ago that Anunoby was the crown jewel of the Raptors' young gems. It wasn't until Siakam exploded and Anunoby was plagued with knee and appendectomy issues last season. Entering year three, Anunoby possesses fantastic defensive instincts and is a capable 3-point shooter. In other words, he's exactly what the Raptors need. Travel back to the 2017-18 season and the Raptors outscored opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions when Anunoby was on the court, second best after Steph Curry-stopper Fred VanVleet. Don't sleep on the OG revival. The Raptors have a void to fill and he's the man for the job. Also, OG has got to be one of the coolest names in NBA history.
Comments
Post a Comment